ASSIMILATION OF MODIS TEMPERATURE AND WATER VAPOR PROFILES INTO A MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SYSTEM

The Melbourne, Florida NWS is currently running, real-time, the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS, Xue 2002) with its analysis component the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS, Brewster 1986) over most of the Florida peninsula at 4-km resolution (Fig. 1). ADAS uses the Bratseth (1986) successive correction method to blend observations with a background (first-guess) field. The Bratseth scheme is computationally efficient and quite flexible in that it can discriminate between background and observation errors. ADAS ingests the following observational types: singlelevel (e.g. surface), multi-level (e.g. upper air, profiler), WSR Level II radial winds and reflectivity, and singleDoppler retrieved winds. The Melbourne NWSFO ADAS configuration includes the high density network of observations at the Kennedy Space Center (surface, profiler, and tower data), the Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN), Automatic Position Reporting System (APRS), Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), METAR surface observations, GOES-8 visible (1-km) and infrared (4km) satellite imagery, NASA Doppler wind profilers, and buoy observations (Case et al. 2002). The analysis is run every 15 minutes. Sashegyi et al. (1993) have used the Bratseth scheme to improve geostrophic wind modeling in Atlantic Lows and Lazarus et al. (2002) have used the ADAS/Bratseth scheme to produce near-realtime analyses in the complex terrain of the intermountain west. Of the many forecasting challenges in Florida, none is more important than the sea breeze. In order to better represent the sea breeze, it is important to know the temperature and moisture distribution in the lower troposphere—especially upstream (to the east) of the Florida peninsula. Unfortunately, both surface and upper air data is sparse in this region. For example, on Florida’s east coast, there are only three moored buoys and seven Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) stations (one in St. Augustine, FL, five scattered from Lake Worth, FL to Sand Key, FL and one on the western shore of Grand Bahama Island) that provide atmospheric conditions near the ocean surface. The buoys and automated stations measure air temperature, ____________________________________________