Are wildcat well outcomes dependent or independent?

A binary logit model is adapted to the spatial point process represented by outcomes of wildcat wells as a function of drilling history. The probability of success of the (n+1)st wildcat is made dependent on the well's location and on outcomes of wildcats previously drilled within a distanced of the well. This simple model is a device for investigating patterns of dependencies of wildcat well outcomes and for projecting probabilities of drilling success at particular locations. The model is applied to two Canadian petroleum plays.