A heuristic fuzzy algorithm bio-inspired by Evolution Strategies for energy forecasting problems

Improving the use of energy resources has been a great challenge in the last years. A new complex scenario involving a decentralized bidirectional communication between energy suppliers, distribution system and consumption is nowadays becoming reality. Sometimes cited as the largest and most complex machine ever built, Electric Grids (EG) are been transformed into Smart Grids (SG). Hence, the load forecasting problem has become more difficulty and more autonomous load predictors are needed in this new conjecture. In this paper a novel method, so-called MSES, bio-inspired by Evolution Strategies (ES) combined with Multi-Start (MS) procedure is described. This procedure is mainly based on a self-adaptive algorithm to calibrate the parameters of the fuzzy rules. MSES was implemented in C++ via OptFrame framework. Our main goal is to evaluate the performance of this algorithm in a grid environment. Real data from an electric utility have been used in order to test the proposed methodology. The obtained results are fully described and analyzed.

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