Hypertensive target organ damage predicts incident diabetes mellitus

Aims Whether patients with hypertensive preclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at higher risk of incident diabetes has never been studied. Methods and results We assessed incident diabetes in 4176 hypertensive non-diabetic patients (age 58.7 ± 8.9 years, 58% male) with ≥1 year follow-up (median: 3.57 years; inter-quartile range: 2.04–7.25). Left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (LVH) was defined as LV mass index (LVMi) ≥51 g/m2.7. Carotid atherosclerosis (CA) was defined as intima-media thickness >1.5 mm. During follow-up, diabetes developed in 393 patients (9.4%), more frequently in those with than without initial LVH or CA (odds ratio = 1.97 and 1.67, respectively; both P < 0.0001). In the Cox regression, the presence of either initial LVH or CA was associated with higher hazard of diabetes [hazards ratio (HR) = 1.30 and 1.38, respectively; both P = 0.03], independently of the type and number of anti-hypertensive medications, initial systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001), body mass index, fasting glucose, family history of diabetes (all P < 0.0001), and therapy with β-blockers. The presence of one of the, or both, markers of preclinical CVD increased the chance of incident diabetes by 63 or 64%, respectively (both P < 0.002), independently of significant confounders, a result that was confirmed (HR = 1.70 or 1.93, respectively; both P < 0.0001) using ATPIII metabolic syndrome (HR = 2.73; P < 0.0001) in the Cox model. Conclusion Initial LVH and CA are significant predictors of new onset diabetes in a large population of treated hypertensive patients, independently of initial metabolic profile, anti-hypertensive therapy, and other significant covariates. This sequence may be attributable to risk factors common to preclinical CVD and diabetes, but a vascular origin of diabetes cannot be excluded.