With COVID-19, modeling takes on life and death importance.

Infectious disease scientists have modeled the spread of many pathogens, but never has so much depended on their work. Computer simulations are being used to advise governments on what actions will help control the spread of the novel coronavirus and the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019. Entire cities and countries have been locked down based on hastily done forecasts that often haven9t been peer reviewed. Model outcomes vary widely depending on the characteristics of a pathogen and the affected population, and if they9re wrong, there could be tragic results, including shortages of intensive care beds.