The fossilized birth–death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates

Significance Divergence time estimation on an absolute timescale requires external calibration information, which typically is derived from the fossil record. The common practice in Bayesian divergence time estimation involves applying calibration densities to individual nodes. Often, these priors are arbitrarily chosen and specified yet have an excessive impact on estimates of absolute time. We introduce the fossilized birth–death process—a fossil calibration method that unifies extinct and extant species with a single macroevolutionary model, eliminating the need for ad hoc calibration priors. Compared with common calibration density approaches, Bayesian inference under this mechanistic model yields more accurate node age estimates while providing a coherent measure of statistical uncertainty. Furthermore, unlike calibration densities, our model accommodates all the reliable fossils for a given phylogenetic dataset. Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data—most commonly, fossil age estimates—are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the “fossilized birth–death” (FBD) process—a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene.