Real-time construction schedule analysis of long-distance diversion tunnels based on lithological predictions using a markov process

AbstractSchedules are major concerns in construction planning and management. The mutual interferences among construction activities of long-distance diversion tunnels (LDDTs) are complicated because of their crisscrossing and intensive layout, which will affect scheduling to some degree. Especially, lithology has a conclusive influence on underground construction. But the lithology determination methods of current construction simulation, such as the trend of extrapolation from observations, do not fully consider lithology’s inherent characteristics and the transition probability between different lithological classifications. In the present study, the authors propose a hierarchical simulation model coupling the critical path method (CPM) and cycle operation network (CYCLONE) to arrange the intricate construction sequence of LDDTs. Additionally, a Markov prediction model is embedded into the CYCLONE model as a specific component to consider lithological uncertainty and estimate construction parameters of...

[1]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Development of an object oriented framework for the simulation of earth moving operations , 1997, Proceedings Intelligent Information Systems. IIS'97.

[2]  Vineet R. Kamat,et al.  Validating Complex Construction Simulation Models Using 3D Visualization , 2003 .

[3]  Michel Dekking,et al.  A Markov Chain Model for Subsurface Characterization: Theory and Applications , 2001 .

[4]  Cliff Schexnayder,et al.  Describing a beta probability distribution function for construction simulation , 2005 .

[5]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Modeling Weather-Sensitive Construction Activity Using Simulation , 2011 .

[6]  Osama Moselhi,et al.  Schedule Assessment and Evaluation , 2012 .

[7]  Ming Lu,et al.  Resource-constrained critical path analysis based on discrete event simulation and particle swarm optimization , 2008 .

[8]  Jonathan Jingsheng Shi,et al.  ACTIVITY-BASED CONSTRUCTION (ABC) MODELING AND SIMULATION METHOD , 1999 .

[9]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Role of Simulation in Construction Engineering and Management , 2010 .

[10]  R. A. Behrens,et al.  Incorporating Seismic Attribute Maps in 3D Reservoir Models , 1998 .

[11]  Llewellyn Tang,et al.  Simulating Construction Duration for Multistory Buildings with Controlling Activities , 2013 .

[12]  Xueqing Zhang,et al.  Construction Process Reengineering by Integrating Lean Principles and Computer Simulation Techniques , 2008 .

[13]  Danny J. Johnson,et al.  A spreadsheet method for calculating work completion time probability distributions of paced or linked assembly lines , 2002 .

[14]  Photios G. Ioannou.  Geologic Prediction Model for Tunneling , 1987 .

[15]  Tarek Zayed,et al.  A HYBRID FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING CONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS USING DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS , 2012 .

[16]  Ming Lu,et al.  HKCONSIM : A Practical Simulation Solution to Planning Concrete Plant Operations in Hong Kong , 2003 .

[17]  Lingguang Song,et al.  Geographic Information System-Based Visual Simulation Methodology and Its Application in Concrete Dam Construction Processes , 2004 .

[18]  Matthew J. Liberatore,et al.  PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: SOFTWARE USE AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS , 2001 .

[19]  Hong Zhang,et al.  Particle swarm optimization-supported simulation for construction operations , 2006 .

[20]  Jae-Jun Kim,et al.  Method for Calculating Schedule Delay Considering Lost Productivity , 2005 .

[21]  Ming Lu,et al.  SIMPLIFIED DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION APPROACH FOR CONSTRUCTION SIMULATION , 2003 .

[22]  E. Wilde.  Engineering project control , 1995 .

[23]  Clayton V. Deutsch,et al.  Hierarchical object-based stochastic modeling of fluvial reservoirs , 1996 .

[24]  Yuhong Liu,et al.  Improving Sequential Simulation with a Structured Path Guided by Information Content , 2004 .

[25]  Simaan M. AbouRizk,et al.  Using Simulation to Plan Tunnel Construction , 2013 .

[26]  Tao-Ming Cheng,et al.  Optimizing the Schedule of Dispatching Earthmoving Trucks through Genetic Algorithms and Simulation , 2012 .

[27]  Photios G. Ioannou,et al.  General purpose simulation with Stroboscope , 1994, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.

[28]  A. Sivathanu Pillai,et al.  Enhanced pert for programme analysis, control and evaluation: pace , 1995 .

[29]  Jesus M. de la Garza,et al.  Critical Path Method with Multiple Calendars , 2005 .

[30]  Julio C. Martinez,et al.  Modeling of Simultaneously Continuous and Stochastic Construction Activities for Simulation , 2013 .

[31]  David Arditi,et al.  Integrated Simulation System for Construction Operation and Project Scheduling , 2010, J. Comput. Civ. Eng..

[32]  Ahmet Öztaş,et al.  Construction Project Network Evaluation With Correlated Schedule Risk Analysis Model , 2008 .

[33]  Zahid A. Khan,et al.  Application of Markov chain and entropy analysis to lithologic succession — an example from the early Permian Barakar Formation, Bellampalli coalfield, Andhra Pradesh, India , 2009 .