Risk Analysis for Dam Safety Evaluation: Hydrologic Risk.

Abstract : This report documents an application of risk analysis techniques to dam safety analysis. The research contributes to the evolution of risk-based dam safety assessment methods by illustrating how such analyzes might be improved. The study examines the employment of detailed stochastic descriptions of the rainfall and runoff processes, and performance improvements in warning systems, dams, and other structures. Using a detailed stochastic analysis concerning hydrologic risk will give decision-makers more information about the implications of adopting alternative solutions to dam safety problems. The analysis herein presented is not advocating the use of risk analysis in lieu of traditional design standard analysis for project decision-making. Rather, it proposes the use of quantitative risk analysis as a complement to current design standard analysis practices.

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