Prediction of outcome in metastatic breast cancer treated with adriamycin combination chemotherapy

Univariate and multivariate regression methods were used to analyze 17 potential clinical prognostic factors among 138 patients with advanced breast cancer who received Adriamycin‐cyclophosphamide combination chemotherapy between 1973 and 1977 at the University of Arizona. Follow‐up of patients was through September 1979, and survival data were nearly complete. Different factors varied in the relationship to outcome, but age, treatment, and response were important. Selecting the three most strongly related factors, predictive regression equations were developed, which described three types of possible outcome: 1) objective response (age, treatment, and liver involvement), 2) freedom from relapse (age, lung involvement, and response), and 3) survival (age, the number of involved sites [2 or >2], and treatment). Since use of the regression equations is cumbersome for clinical practice, three simplified tables were constructed to readily predict response, duration of response, and survival before the initiation of treatment.