Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Abstract. Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16%) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

[1]  Andreas Volz,et al.  Evaluation of the Montsouris series of ozone measurements made in the nineteenth century , 1988, Nature.

[2]  A. Thompson,et al.  Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change , 1989 .

[3]  Jack Fishman,et al.  Distribution of tropospheric ozone determined from satellite data , 1990 .

[4]  D. Rind,et al.  A simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions , 1992 .

[5]  I. Isaksen,et al.  Effects of reductions in stratospheric ozone on tropospheric chemistry through changes in photolysis rates: EFFECTS OF REDUCTIONS IN STRATOSPHERIC OZONE , 1994 .

[6]  D. Rind,et al.  Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies , 1994 .

[7]  I. Isaksen,et al.  Effects of reductions in stratospheric ozone on tropospheric chemistry through changes in photolysis rates , 1994 .

[8]  J. Pages,et al.  Evidence of a long‐term increase in tropospheric ozone from Pic du Midi data series: Consequences: Positive radiative forcing , 1994 .

[9]  M. Bergin,et al.  Urban Ozone Control and Atmospheric Reactivity of Organic Gases , 1995, Science.

[10]  C. N. Hewitt,et al.  A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions , 1995 .

[11]  K. Rosenlof.  Seasonal cycle of the residual mean meridional circulation in the stratosphere , 1995 .

[12]  D. Jacob,et al.  Origin of ozone and NOx in the tropical troposphere: A photochemical analysis of aircraft observations over the South Atlantic basin , 1996 .

[13]  P. Kasibhatla,et al.  Simulated global tropospheric PAN : Its transport and impact on NOx , 1996 .

[14]  R. Cicerone,et al.  Perturbation to global tropospheric oxidizing capacity due to latitudinal redistribution of surface sources of NOx, CH4 and CO , 1998 .

[15]  D. Stevenson,et al.  Relative roles of climate and emissions changes on future tropospheric oxidant concentrations , 1999 .

[16]  R. Toumi,et al.  Evaluation of pre-industrial surface ozone measurements made using Schönbein’s method , 1999 .

[17]  Jennifer A. Logan,et al.  An analysis of ozonesonde data for the troposphere : recommendations for testing 3-D models and development of a gridded climatology for tropospheric ozone , 1999 .

[18]  J. Lelieveld,et al.  What controls tropospheric ozone , 2000 .

[19]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios : a special report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2000 .

[20]  J. Edwards,et al.  Future estimates of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover — The impact of climate change , 2000 .

[21]  Mark Lawrence,et al.  Interhemispheric di ff erences in the chemical characteristics of the Indian Ocean aerosol during INDOEX , 2002 .

[22]  D. Jacob,et al.  Uncertainty in preindustrial abundance of tropospheric ozone: Implications for radiative forcing calculations , 2001 .

[23]  C. McLinden,et al.  Stratospheric N2O–NO y system: Testing uncertainties in a three‐dimensional framework , 2001 .

[24]  D. Hauglustaine,et al.  Evolution of tropospheric ozone under anthropogenic activities and associated radiative forcing of climate , 2001 .

[25]  D. Allen,et al.  Evaluation of lightning flash rate parameterizations for use in a global chemical transport model , 2002 .

[26]  R. Stolarski,et al.  Changes in Column Ozone Correlated with the Stratospheric EP Flux , 2002 .

[27]  R. Sausen,et al.  Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes , 2003, Science.

[28]  Philip J. Rasch,et al.  The balance of effects of deep convective mixing on tropospheric ozone , 2003 .

[29]  Richard G. Derwent,et al.  Fresh air in the 21st century? , 2003 .

[30]  C. Jones,et al.  Effect of Climate Change on Isoprene Emissions and Surface Ozone Levels , 2003 .

[31]  G. Faluvegi,et al.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 2003 .

[32]  Richard G. Derwent,et al.  Effect of stratosphere‐troposphere exchange on the future tropospheric ozone trend , 2003 .

[33]  K. Sudo,et al.  Future changes in stratosphere‐troposphere exchange and their impacts on future tropospheric ozone simulations , 2003 .

[34]  Robert Sausen,et al.  Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes , 2003 .

[35]  A. Stohl,et al.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics the North Atlantic Oscillation Controls Air Pollution Transport to the Arctic , 2003 .

[36]  J. Pyle,et al.  Changes in tropospheric ozone between 2000 and 2100 modeled in a chemistry‐climate model , 2003 .

[37]  Toshihiro Ogawa,et al.  Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) 1998–2000 tropical ozone climatology 2. Tropospheric variability and the zonal wave-one , 2003 .

[38]  Kiyoshi Sudo,et al.  Future Changes in Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange and Those Impacts on Future Tropospheric Ozone , 2003 .

[39]  P. Bergamaschi,et al.  European Geosciences Union Atmospheric Chemistry , 2004 .

[40]  M. Schoeberl,et al.  Stratosphere‐troposphere exchange of mass and ozone , 2004 .

[41]  D. Jacob,et al.  Climate response to the increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times: A comparison between ozone and equivalent CO2 forcings , 2004 .

[42]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Tropospheric ozone evolution between 1890 and 1990 , 2005 .

[43]  D. Hauglustaine,et al.  Future tropospheric ozone simulated with a climate‐chemistry‐biosphere model , 2005 .

[44]  Gerhard Krinner,et al.  Past and future changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions simulated with a global dynamic vegetation model , 2005 .

[45]  D. Stevenson,et al.  Influence of convective transport on tropospheric ozone and its precursors in a chemistry-climate model , 2005 .

[46]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Evaluating the contribution of changes in isoprene emissions to surface ozone trends over the eastern United States , 2005 .

[47]  Ruth Doherty,et al.  Impacts of climate change and variability on tropospheric ozone and its precursors. , 2005, Faraday discussions.

[48]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation , 2006 .

[49]  Richard S. Stolarski,et al.  Search for evidence of trend slow-down in the long-term TOMS/SBUV total ozone data record: the importance of instrument drift uncertainty , 2006 .

[50]  Arlene M. Fiore,et al.  Impact of meteorology and emissions on methane trends, 1990–2004 , 2006 .

[51]  H. Worden,et al.  Validation of Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) nadir ozone profiles , 2008 .

[52]  P. Palmer,et al.  Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) , 2006 .

[53]  Richard G. Derwent,et al.  Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near‐future changes , 2006 .

[54]  Reinhard Beer,et al.  Tropospheric emission spectrometer: retrieval method and error analysis , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[55]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone , 2006 .

[56]  Reinhard Beer,et al.  TES on the aura mission: scientific objectives, measurements, and analysis overview , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[57]  Denise L Mauzerall,et al.  Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[58]  D Hauglustaine,et al.  The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. , 2006, Environmental science & technology.

[59]  R. Neilson,et al.  Future Changes in Biogenic Isoprene Emissions: How Might They Affect Regional and Global Atmospheric Chemistry? , 2006 .

[60]  R. Ruedy,et al.  Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th‐century climate change , 2006 .

[61]  Thomas Diehl,et al.  Impact of climate change on the future chemical composition of the global troposphere , 2006 .

[62]  Nadine Unger,et al.  Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI , 2006 .

[63]  P. Hari,et al.  Process-based estimates of terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions: incorporating the effects of a direct CO 2 -isoprene interaction , 2007 .

[64]  D A Stainforth,et al.  Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[65]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  CO2 inhibition of global terrestrial isoprene emissions: Potential implications for atmospheric chemistry , 2007 .

[66]  Arlene M. Fiore,et al.  Ozone air quality and radiative forcing consequences of changes in ozone precursor emissions , 2007 .

[67]  Reinhard Beer,et al.  Comparisons of Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) ozone profiles to ozonesondes: Methods and initial results , 2007 .

[68]  W. Briggs.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences , 2007 .

[69]  John A. Pyle,et al.  Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets , 2007 .

[70]  Oliver Wild,et al.  Modelling the global tropospheric ozone budget: exploring the variability in current models , 2007 .

[71]  R. Betts,et al.  Stomatal conductance changes due to increasing carbon dioxide levels: Projected impact on surface ozone levels , 2007 .

[72]  D. Jacob,et al.  Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone , 2007 .

[73]  C. Huntingford,et al.  Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink , 2007, Nature.

[74]  J. Lelieveld,et al.  Lightning and convection parameterisations - uncertainties in global modelling , 2007 .

[75]  Ulrich Schumann,et al.  The global lightning-induced nitrogen oxides source , 2007 .

[76]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Observational constraints on the chemistry of isoprene nitrates over the eastern United States , 2007 .

[77]  Mian Chin,et al.  A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic , 2008 .

[78]  A. Arneth,et al.  Effects of species composition, land surface cover, CO2 concentration and climate on isoprene emissions from European forests. , 2008, Plant biology.

[79]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality , 2008 .

[80]  William J. Collins,et al.  Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution , 2008 .

[81]  David G. Streets,et al.  Effects of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy‐relevant background surface ozone in the United States , 2008 .

[82]  A. Arneth,et al.  The CO2 inhibition of terrestrial isoprene emission significantly affects future ozone projections , 2008 .

[83]  Oliver Wild,et al.  How sensitive is tropospheric oxidation to anthropogenic emissions? , 2008 .

[84]  E. Williams,et al.  The global electrical circuit: A review , 2009 .

[85]  T. Shepherd,et al.  Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux , 2009 .

[86]  M. Jacobson,et al.  Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality , 2009 .

[87]  Stephen Sitch,et al.  Isoprene emissions and climate , 2009 .

[88]  G. Carmichael,et al.  Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission , 2009 .

[89]  K. Emmerson,et al.  Comparison of tropospheric gas-phase chemistry schemes for use within global models , 2009 .

[90]  J. Lelieveld,et al.  Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions , 2010 .

[91]  J. Neu,et al.  An atmospheric chemist in search of the tropopause , 2010 .

[92]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models , 2010 .

[93]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models , 2010 .

[94]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of Twenty- First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes , 2010 .

[95]  A. Arneth,et al.  Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system , 2010 .

[96]  John A. Pyle,et al.  Impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric ozone and its budget , 2010 .

[97]  David S. Lee,et al.  Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application , 2010 .

[98]  A. Archibald,et al.  An Isoprene Mechanism Intercomparison , 2010 .

[99]  D. Jacob,et al.  Intercomparison methods for satellite measurements of atmospheric composition: application to tropospheric ozone from TES and OMI , 2010 .

[100]  Pawan K. Bhartia,et al.  A global climatology of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone derived from Aura OMI and MLS measurements , 2011 .

[101]  G. P. Kyle,et al.  Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways , 2011 .

[102]  P. Hess,et al.  Modelling future changes in surface ozone: a parameterized approach , 2011 .

[103]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Estimating the climate significance of halogen-driven ozone loss in the tropical marine troposphere , 2011 .

[104]  J. G. Levine,et al.  Impacts of HOx regeneration and recycling in the oxidation of isoprene: Consequences for the composition of past, present and future atmospheres , 2011 .

[105]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Mapping model agreement on future climate projections , 2011 .

[106]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing , 2011 .

[107]  A. Thomson,et al.  The representative concentration pathways: an overview , 2011 .

[108]  J. Lelieveld,et al.  Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on air pollution transport , 2011 .

[109]  C. N. Hewitt,et al.  Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: Sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation , 2011 .

[110]  C. N. Hewitt,et al.  Impacts of near-future cultivation of biofuel feedstocks on atmospheric composition and local air quality , 2011 .

[111]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Ozonesonde climatology between 1995 and 2009: description, evaluation and applications , 2011 .

[112]  Toru Nozawa,et al.  Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) , 2011 .

[113]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) , 2012 .

[114]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[115]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations , 2012 .

[116]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Scenarios of methane emission reductions to 2030: abatement costs and co-benefits to ozone air quality and human mortality , 2012, Climatic Change.

[117]  Kenneth S. Carslaw,et al.  Mapping the uncertainty in global CCN using emulation , 2012 .

[118]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Technical Note: Ozonesonde climatology between 1995 and 2011: description, evaluation and applications , 2012 .

[119]  J. Staehelin,et al.  Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations at northern mid-latitudes , 2012 .

[120]  D. Jacob,et al.  Tropospheric bromine chemistry: implications for present and pre-industrial ozone and mercury , 2012 .

[121]  J. Lamarque,et al.  The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics , 2012 .

[122]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Observational constraints on ozone radiative forcing from the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) , 2012 .

[123]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) , 2012 .

[124]  M. Chin,et al.  Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations , 2013 .

[125]  Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations , 2013 .

[126]  P. J. Young,et al.  Long‐term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations , 2013 .