SURVEY OF SIMULATION MODELS FOR EVALUATION OF ITS SCENARIOS

In the Swedish TOSCA evaluation project some twenty ITS functions were evaluated with respect to efficiency, environmental and safety impacts. The evaluation was performed as integrated scenario assessments for the years 2000 and 2020, and resulted in cost-benefit ratios for the different functions. The core of the evaluation model system was a nested logit demand model used together with the static equilibrium assignment model EMME/2 enhanced by data from ITS field trials and simulations. One of the conclusions from the TOSCA evaluation work was that this static macro model system was not sufficient when it came to modeling the dynamic nature of most ITS functions. In order to point out interesting traffic models to use in future evaluations a survey of simulation models was carried out. The aim of the survey was to find the most suitable methods to evaluate the impacts of regional scenarios of ITS concerning efficiency, travel pattern, environmental effects and safety effects. The first step of the survey was to identify the requirements that the new models should fulfill. The survey was undertaken through participation in conferences, literature review and letters with questions to model developers. The survey revealed that there are a number of models capable of addressing the effects of ITS, most of which are under development. In spite of this, applicable models do not yet fully meet the requirements related to ITS scenario evaluation. In the long run, the conclusion is that the relevance and applicability of different modeling approaches in progress should be tested.