The Atmospheric Response over the North Atlantic to Decadal Changes in Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Decadal fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic–European region may be influenced by interactions between the atmosphere and the Atlantic Ocean, possibly as part of a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode of variability. For such a mode to exist, a consistent atmospheric response to fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) is required. Furthermore, this response must provide feedbacks to the ocean. Whether a consistent response exists, and whether it yields the required feedbacks, are issues that remain controversial. Here, these issues are addressed using a novel approach to analyze an ensemble of six integrations of the Hadley Centre atmospheric general circulation model HadAM1, all forced with observed global SSTs and sea-ice extents for the period 1949–93. Characterizing the forced atmospheric response is complicated by the presence of internal variability. A generalization of principal component analysis is used to estimate the common forced response given the knowledg...

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