C-NORTA: A Rejection Procedure for Sampling from the Tail of Bivariate NORTA Distributions

We propose C-NORTA, an exact algorithm to generate random variates from the tail of a bivariate NORTA random vector. (A NORTA random vector is specified by a pair of marginals and a rank or product--moment correlation, and it is sampled using the popular NORmal-To-Anything procedure.) We first demonstrate that a rejection-based adaptation of NORTA on such constrained random vector generation problems may often be fundamentally intractable. We then develop the C-NORTA algorithm, relying on strategic conditioning of the NORTA vector, followed by efficient approximation and acceptance/rejection steps. We show that, in a certain precise asymptotic sense, the sampling efficiency of C-NORTA is exponentially larger than what is achievable through a naive application of NORTA. Furthermore, for at least a certain class of problems, we show that the acceptance probability within C-NORTA decays only linearly with respect to a defined rarity parameter. The corresponding decay rate achievable through a naive adaptation of NORTA is exponential. We provide directives for efficient implementation.

[1]  Pierre L'Ecuyer,et al.  Efficient Correlation Matching for Fitting Discrete Multivariate Distributions with Arbitrary Marginals and Normal-Copula Dependence , 2009, INFORMS J. Comput..

[2]  R. Nelsen An Introduction to Copulas , 1998 .

[3]  Pu Huang,et al.  Iterative estimation maximization for stochastic linear programs with conditional value-at-risk constraints , 2012, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[4]  Adrian F. M. Smith,et al.  Bayesian Analysis of Constrained Parameter and Truncated Data Problems , 1991 .

[5]  N. L. Johnson,et al.  Continuous Univariate Distributions. , 1995 .

[6]  Barry L. Nelson,et al.  Numerical Methods for Fitting and Simulating Autoregressive-to-Anything Processes , 1998, INFORMS J. Comput..

[7]  P. Shahabuddin,et al.  Chapter 11 Rare-Event Simulation Techniques: An Introduction and Recent Advances , 2006, Simulation.

[8]  S. Walker,et al.  Sampling Truncated Normal, Beta, and Gamma Densities , 2001 .

[9]  Paul Glasserman,et al.  Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk , 2005, Manag. Sci..

[10]  Averill M. Law,et al.  Simulation Modeling and Analysis , 1982 .

[11]  Peter W. Glynn,et al.  Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms and Analysis , 2007 .

[12]  M. Sklar Fonctions de repartition a n dimensions et leurs marges , 1959 .

[13]  Shane G. Henderson,et al.  Behavior of the NORTA method for correlated random vector generation as the dimension increases , 2003, TOMC.

[14]  N. L. Johnson,et al.  Continuous Univariate Distributions.Vol. 1@@@Continuous Univariate Distributions.Vol. 2 , 1995 .

[15]  P. Glasserman,et al.  Variance Reduction Techniques for Estimating Value-at-Risk , 2000 .

[16]  Huifen Chen,et al.  Initialization for NORTA: Generation of Random Vectors with Specified Marginals and Correlations , 2001, INFORMS J. Comput..

[17]  Dawei Lu,et al.  A note on multivariate Gaussian estimates , 2009 .

[18]  S. Juneja,et al.  Rare-event Simulation Techniques : An Introduction and Recent Advances , 2006 .

[19]  W. Whitt Bivariate Distributions with Given Marginals , 1976 .

[20]  Alastair J. Walker,et al.  An Efficient Method for Generating Discrete Random Variables with General Distributions , 1977, TOMS.

[21]  Robert Bartle,et al.  The Elements of Real Analysis , 1977, The Mathematical Gazette.

[22]  Paul Glasserman,et al.  Portfolio Value‐at‐Risk with Heavy‐Tailed Risk Factors , 2002 .