Population forecasting and local economic planning: The limits on community control over uncertainty

Forecasting, planning, and controls are all attempts to cope with uncertainty about the future. The reasons that forecasts err are examined, and the limits of technical solutions are discussed. The beneficial planning uses of even error-prone forecasts are outlined, and it is argued that the concept of forecast accuracy is a basic contradiction of the essence of planning. The potential for local economic planning and community control over uncertainty is examined. Its major determinant is the economic context in which a community finds itself, but the enhanced mobility of firms over the last two decades has restricted the ability of communities to plan. Implications for forecasters, model builders, and local planners are discussed.

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