On error measures in wind forecasting evaluations

Wind power is utilized as an environmentally friendly source of bulk electricity. However, large variations of wind speed and subsequently wind power, makes large-scale wind power integration into the grid challenging. Forecasting wind power generation is one of the methods to cope with this issue. Hence, a large variety of different forecasting models are developed in the literature. Since all of forecasts have inherent errors, the procedure of error assessment of forecasting models is important. In this paper, we discuss recent wind forecasting works with a focus on their error assessment criteria. A review of the literature is provided and most common error measures are studied.

[1]  Mohammad Monfared,et al.  A new strategy for wind speed forecasting using artificial intelligent methods , 2009 .

[2]  Jing Shi,et al.  Fine tuning support vector machines for short-term wind speed forecasting , 2011 .

[3]  E.F. El-Saadany,et al.  One Day Ahead Prediction of Wind Speed and Direction , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[4]  A. V. Savkin,et al.  A Method for Short-Term Wind Power Prediction With Multiple Observation Points , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[5]  S. N. Singh,et al.  AWNN-Assisted Wind Power Forecasting Using Feed-Forward Neural Network , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[6]  J.B. Theocharis,et al.  A fuzzy model for wind speed prediction and power generation in wind parks using spatial correlation , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[7]  Chao Chen,et al.  A hybrid statistical method to predict wind speed and wind power , 2010 .

[8]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Short‐term Prediction—An Overview , 2003 .

[9]  Zhang Yan,et al.  A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power , 2009 .

[10]  Yuan-Kang Wu,et al.  A literature review of wind forecasting technology in the world , 2007, 2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech.

[11]  R. Kavasseri,et al.  Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models , 2009 .

[12]  Carlos Abreu Ferreira,et al.  A survey on wind power ramp forecasting. , 2011 .

[13]  S. Tewari,et al.  A Statistical Model for Wind Power Forecast Error and its Application to the Estimation of Penalties in Liberalized Markets , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[14]  J.B. Theocharis,et al.  Long-term wind speed and power forecasting using local recurrent neural network models , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[15]  Chuanwen Jiang,et al.  Short-Term Operation Model and Risk Management for Wind Power Penetrated System in Electricity Market , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[16]  Aoife Foley,et al.  Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation , 2012 .

[17]  Athanasios Sfetsos,et al.  A comparison of various forecasting techniques applied to mean hourly wind speed time series , 2000 .

[18]  N.D. Hatziargyriou,et al.  An Advanced Statistical Method for Wind Power Forecasting , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[19]  Alfredo Vaccaro,et al.  An adaptive framework based on multi-model data fusion for one-day-ahead wind power forecasting , 2011 .

[20]  M. Negnevitsky,et al.  Very short-term wind forecasting for Tasmanian power generation , 2006, 2006 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting.

[21]  E. Fernandez,et al.  Estimation of Energy Yield From Wind Farms Using Artificial Neural Networks , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[22]  Ehab F. El-Saadany,et al.  Improved Grey predictor rolling models for wind power prediction , 2007 .

[23]  Heekuck Oh,et al.  Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition , 1993, Adv. Comput..

[24]  P. S. Dokopoulos,et al.  Wind speed and power forecasting based on spatial correlation models , 1999 .

[25]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  Complex-valued prediction of wind profile using augmented complex statistics , 2009 .

[26]  Joao P. S. Catalao,et al.  Hybrid wavelet-PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal , 2011 .

[27]  A. Llombart,et al.  Statistical Analysis of Wind Power Forecast Error , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[28]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction , 2008 .

[29]  R. Buizza,et al.  Wind Power Density Forecasting Using Ensemble Predictions and Time Series Models , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[30]  Wei-Jen Lee,et al.  Forecasting the Wind Generation Using a Two-Stage Network Based on Meteorological Information , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[31]  V. Miranda,et al.  Entropy and Correntropy Against Minimum Square Error in Offline and Online Three-Day Ahead Wind Power Forecasting , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[32]  Wei Qiao,et al.  Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Wavelet Support Vector Machine , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[33]  Jing Shi,et al.  Bayesian adaptive combination of short-term wind speed forecasts from neural network models , 2011 .

[34]  Mohamed Mohandes,et al.  Support vector machines for wind speed prediction , 2004 .

[35]  H Zareipour,et al.  Wind Power Prediction by a New Forecast Engine Composed of Modified Hybrid Neural Network and Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[36]  Paras Mandal,et al.  A review of wind power and wind speed forecasting methods with different time horizons , 2010, North American Power Symposium 2010.

[37]  Zijun Zhang,et al.  Short-Horizon Prediction of Wind Power: A Data-Driven Approach , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[38]  S. Walson Fresh forecasts [wind power forecasting] , 2005 .

[39]  George Galanis,et al.  Wind power prediction based on numerical and statistical models , 2013 .

[40]  Zhixin Yang,et al.  By Leaps and Bounds: Lessons Learned from Renewable Energy Growth in China , 2012, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[41]  D. Edelson,et al.  Change in the air , 2009, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[42]  Farshid Keynia,et al.  Short-term wind power forecasting using ridgelet neural network , 2011 .

[43]  Pierre Pinson,et al.  Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models , 2005 .

[44]  M. G. Lobo,et al.  Regional Wind Power Forecasting Based on Smoothing Techniques, With Application to the Spanish Peninsular System , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[45]  Ruddy Blonbou,et al.  Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning , 2011 .