A Return on Investment Analysis of Air Force Officer Accessions

Abstract : The Air Force is about to undergo its most significant force structure reductions in nearly two decades. Drawdowns in both Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with an economic recession and sequestration, are creating an environment where the service cannot continue accessing officers at traditional rates. After all, the Air Force accessions strategy directly impacts the services congressionally controlled end strength and the costs of personnel have increased significantly in recent years.Any change to the Air Forces accessions strategy must involve a close look at each of its three accessions sources. The Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC), Officer Training School (OTS) and United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) combine to fill the Air Force with new officers each year. The resources, however, differ greatly between these three sources, as do the officers that they create. This study took a close look at recent production trends, along with propensity to serve, costs to produce, early promotion opportunities, and diversity from each of the sources in order to help inform future accessions-related decisions.The data encouraged an accessions strategy that continues reductions in OTS production in an effort to sustain both ROTC and USAFA production. Additionally, the data identifies several areas that require more investigation in the near-term in order to more accurately inform mid-term strategic decisions. A careful approach that protects the production of the most successful and diverse pool of future officers will ensure accessions success, filling the ranks with tomorrows Air Force leaders.