A Case Study of Climate Change Impacts on Navigation on the Mackenzie River

The impacts of climate change on the Mackenzie River are examined through a case study that considers navigational requirements for barge transportation. Climate change scenarios are used to estimate projected changes in streamflow, and potential changes in water levels, through the use of a hydrological model and a hydraulic model. The climate change scenarios suggest an earlier spring freshet and increased fall flow while some scenarios suggest lower flows in the summer period. From a navigational perspective, the climate change scenarios are generally favourable, indicating an extended navigation season, in comparison to the base conditions.

[1]  P. Gent,et al.  Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models , 1990 .

[2]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments , 2000 .

[3]  Faye E. Hicks,et al.  Hydraulic flood routing with minimal channel data: Peace River, Canada , 1996 .

[4]  Peter M. Steffler,et al.  Characteristic dissipative Galerkin scheme for open-channel flow , 1992 .

[5]  G. Boer,et al.  Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations , 2001 .

[6]  P. E. O'connell,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part III - The Ray catchment at Grendon Underwood , 1970 .

[7]  G. Russell,et al.  The impact of global warming on river runoff , 1992 .

[8]  G. Boer,et al.  Effects of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river basins , 2001 .

[9]  V. Pope,et al.  The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3 , 2000 .

[10]  Alain Pietroniro,et al.  Grouped Response Units for Distributed Hydrologic Modeling , 1993 .

[11]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[12]  V. Singh,et al.  WATFLOOD/SPL9 hydrological model & flood forecasting system. , 2002 .

[13]  Alain Pietroniro,et al.  A Comparison of Trends in Hydrological Variables for Two Watersheds in the Mackenzie River Basin , 2004 .

[14]  Zong-ci Zhao,et al.  Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , 2001 .