Using Mechanistic Models to Scale Ecological Processes across Space and Time

Abstract Human activities affect the natural environment at local to global scales. To understand these effects, knowledge derived from short-term studies on small plots needs to be projected to much broader spatial and temporal scales. One way to project short-term, plot-scale knowledge to broader scales is to embed that knowledge in a mechanistic model of the ecosystem. The National Science Foundation's Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network makes two vital contributions to this type of modeling effort: (1) a commitment to multidisciplinary research at individual sites, which results in a broad range of mutually consistent data, and (2) long-term data sets essential for estimating rate constants for slow ecosystem processes that dominate long-term ecosystem dynamics. In this article, we present four examples of how a mechanistic approach to modeling ecological processes can be used to make projections to broader scales. The models are all applied to sites in the LTER Network.

[1]  P. Reich,et al.  Extrapolating leaf CO2 exchange to the canopy: a generalized model of forest photosynthesis compared with measurements by eddy correlation , 1996, Oecologia.

[2]  P. Reich,et al.  Different photosynthesis-nitrogen relations in deciduous hardwood and evergreen coniferous tree species , 1995, Oecologia.

[3]  W. Lauenroth,et al.  Successional dynamics of a semiarid grassland: effects of soil texture and disturbance size , 1994, Vegetatio.

[4]  W. Oechel,et al.  Carbon balance in tussock tundra under ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 , 1990, Oecologia.

[5]  E. Rastetter,et al.  Modeling biogeochemical responses of tundra ecosystems to temporal and spatial variations in climate in the Kuparuk River Basin (Alaska) , 2003 .

[6]  M. Harmon,et al.  Ecological Variability in Space and Time: Insights Gained from the US LTER Program , 2003 .

[7]  Debra P. C. Peters,et al.  Plant species dominance at a grassland–shrubland ecotone: an individual-based gap dynamics model of herbaceous and woody species , 2002 .

[8]  P. Reich,et al.  Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone, elevated CO2 and land use history on the carbon dynamics of northern hardwood forests , 2002 .

[9]  E. Rastetter,et al.  PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF AN ARCTIC WATERSHED: AN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS , 2001 .

[10]  W. Parton,et al.  Implementation of a Two-Way Interactive Atmospheric and Ecological Model and Its Application to the Central United States , 2001 .

[11]  E. Rastetter,et al.  The controls on net ecosystem productivity along an Arctic transect: a model comparison with flux measurements , 2000, Global change biology.

[12]  Edward B. Rastetter,et al.  Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: a comparison of a plot‐ and a global‐scale ecosystem model to identify process‐based uncertainties , 2000, Global change biology.

[13]  Roger A. Pielke,et al.  Coupled Atmosphere–Biophysics–Hydrology Models for Environmental Modeling , 2000 .

[14]  Carol Miller,et al.  Forest Pattern, Fire, and Climatic Change in the Sierra Nevada , 1999, Ecosystems.

[15]  W. Parton,et al.  DAYCENT and its land surface submodel: description and testing , 1998 .

[16]  R. Pielke,et al.  Calibration of Soil Moisture for Large-Eddy Simulations over the FIFE Area , 1998 .

[17]  R. O G E,et al.  Interactions between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems : influence on weather and climate , 1998 .

[18]  J. Aber,et al.  Effects of land use, climate variation, and N deposition on N cycling and C storage in northern hardwood forests , 1997 .

[19]  S. Ollinger,et al.  Modeling nitrogen saturation in forest ecosystems in response to land use and atmospheric deposition , 1997 .

[20]  E. Rastetter,et al.  PREDICTING GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY IN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS , 1997 .

[21]  R. Pielke.  “Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather and climate simulations” , 1997 .

[22]  F. Chapin,et al.  CLIMATIC EFFECTS ON TUNDRA CARBON STORAGE INFERRED FROM EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND A MODEL , 1997 .

[23]  W. Parton,et al.  CH4 and N2O fluxes in the Colorado shortgrass steppe: 2. Long‐term impact of land use change , 1997 .

[24]  Roger A. Pielke,et al.  USE OF USGS‐PROVIDED DATA TO IMPROVE WEATHERAND CLIMATE SIMULATIONS , 1997 .

[25]  W. Parton,et al.  CH4 and N2O fluxes in the Colorado shortgrass steppe: 1. Impact of landscape and nitrogen addition , 1996 .

[26]  S. Wofsy,et al.  Modelling the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in a Quercus-Acer stand at Harvard Forest : the regulation of stomatal conductance by light, nitrogen and soil/plant hydraulic properties , 1996 .

[27]  I. Burke,et al.  Recovery of Vegetation in a Semiarid Grassland 53 Years after Disturbance , 1996 .

[28]  J. William Munger,et al.  Exchange of Carbon Dioxide by a Deciduous Forest: Response to Interannual Climate Variability , 1996, Science.

[29]  W. Parton,et al.  Seasonal variabilities in the distribution of the microclimatic factors and evapotranspiration in a shortgrass steppe , 1996 .

[30]  P. Reich,et al.  Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States , 1995 .

[31]  F. Chapin,et al.  Long-term responses to factorial, NPK fertilizer treatment by Alaskan wet and moist tundra sedge species , 1995 .

[32]  F. Stuart Chapin,et al.  Responses of Arctic Tundra to Experimental and Observed Changes in Climate , 1995 .

[33]  Gene E. Likens,et al.  Biogeochemistry of a Forested Ecosystem , 1978, Springer New York.

[34]  J. Aber,et al.  Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Water Yield and Forest Production in Northeastern U.S , 1995 .

[35]  Thomas H. Painter,et al.  Climatic, edaphic, and biotic controls over storage and turnover of carbon in soils , 1994 .

[36]  J. Aber,et al.  A strategy for the regional analysis of the effects of physical and chemical climate change on biogeochemical cycles in northeastern (U.S.) forests , 1993 .

[37]  Anthony W King,et al.  Aggregating Fine-Scale Ecological Knowledge to Model Coarser-Scale Attributes of Ecosystems. , 1992, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[38]  Timothy G. F. Kittel,et al.  Regional Analysis of the Central Great Plains , 1991 .

[39]  W. Parton,et al.  Grassland biogeochemistry: Links to atmospheric processes , 1990 .

[40]  William K. Lauenroth,et al.  A gap dynamics simulation model of succession in a semiarid grassland , 1990 .

[41]  W. Lauenroth,et al.  SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES AND SUCCESSIONAL DYNAMICS IN A SHORTGRASS PLANT COMMUNITY INTERACTIONS OF DISTURBANCE CHARACTERISTICS , 1989 .

[42]  W. Parton,et al.  Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands , 1987 .

[43]  C. B. Tanner,et al.  Water-Use Efficiency in Crop Production , 1984 .

[44]  C. Federer,et al.  Brook: A Hydrologic Simulation Model for Eastern Forests , 1978 .

[45]  W. F. Blair.  Big biology : the US/IBP , 1977 .