This paper presents the results of a probabilistic evaluation of the seismic performance of 3D steel moment-frame structures. Two types of framing system are considered: one-way frames typical of construction in the United States and two-way frames typical of construction in Japan. For each framing system, four types of beam–column connections are considered: pre-Northridge welded-flange bolted-web, post-Northridge welded-flange welded-web, reduced-beam-section, and bolted-flange-plate connections. A suite of earthquake ground motions is used to compute the annual probability of exceedence (APE) for a series of drift demand levels and for member plastic-rotation capacity. Results are compared for the different framing systems and connection details. It is found that the two-way frames, which have a larger initial stiffness and strength than the one-way frames for the same beam and column volumes, have a smaller APE for small drift demands for which members exhibit no or minimal yielding, but have a larger APE for large drift demands for which members exhibit large plastic rotations. However, the one-way frames, which typically comprise a few seismic frames with large-sized members that have relatively small rotation capacities, may have a larger APE for member failure. The probabilistic approach presented in this study may be used to determine the most appropriate frame configuration to meet an owner's performance objectives. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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