Uncertainty Quantification in MD Simulations. Part II: Bayesian Inference of Force-Field Parameters

This paper explores the inference of small-scale, atomistic parameters, based on the specification of large, or macroscale, observables. Specifically, we focus on estimating a set of force-field parameters for the four-site, TIP4P, water model, based on a synthetic problem involving isothermal, isobaric molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of water at ambient conditions. We exploit the polynomial chaos (PC) expansions developed in Part I as surrogate representations of three macroscale observables, namely density, self-diffusion, and enthalpy, as a function of the force-field parameters. We analyze and discuss the use of two different PC representations in a Bayesian framework for the inference of atomistic parameters, based on synthetic observations of three macroscale observables. The first surrogate is a deterministic PC representation, constructed in Part I using nonintrusive spectral projection (NISP). An alternative strategy exploits a nondeterministic PC representation obtained using Bayesian infere...

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