A Tale of Two Anomalies: The Implications of Investor Attention for Price and Earnings Momentum

We examine the role of investor attention in explaining the profitability of price and earnings momentum strategies. Using trading volume and market state to measure cross-sectional and time-series variations of investor attention, we find that price momentum profits are higher among high volume stocks and in up markets, but that earnings momentum profits are higher among low volume stocks and in down markets. In the long run, price momentum profits reverse but earnings momentum profits do not. These results suggest that price underreaction to earnings news weakens with investor attention, but price continuation caused by investors' overreaction strengthens with attention.

[1]  Terrance Odean,et al.  Learning to Be Overconfident , 1997 .

[2]  Y. Amihud,et al.  Illiquidity and Stock Returns II: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects , 2018, The Review of Financial Studies.

[3]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Attention and Effort , 1973 .

[4]  Kewei Hou,et al.  Industry Information Diffusion and the Lead-Lag Effect in Stock Returns , 2007 .

[5]  Chris J. Muscarella,et al.  Do institutions receive comparable execution in the NYSE and Nasdaq markets? A transaction study of block trades , 1997 .

[6]  Stefano DellaVigna,et al.  Investor Inattention, Firm Reaction, and Friday Earnings Announcements , 2005 .

[7]  R. Ball,et al.  An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers , 1968 .

[8]  Terence Lim,et al.  Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies , 1998 .

[9]  Kewei Hou,et al.  What Factors Drive Global Stock Returns? , 2011 .

[10]  Tarun Chordia,et al.  Trading Volume and Cross‐Autocorrelations in Stock Returns , 2000 .

[11]  A. Shleifer,et al.  The Limits of Arbitrage , 1995 .

[12]  Wei Xiong,et al.  Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles , 2003, Journal of Political Economy.

[13]  J. Francis,et al.  The Stock-Market Response To Earnings Announcements Released During Trading Versus Nontrading Periods , 1992 .

[14]  Kent D. Daniel,et al.  Measuring mutual fund performance with characteristic-based benchmarks , 1997 .

[15]  Kent D. Daniel,et al.  NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES EVIDENCE ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF CROSS SECTIONAL VARIATION IN STOCK RETURNS , 1996 .

[16]  C. Sims Implications of rational inattention , 2003 .

[17]  Stefano DellaVigna,et al.  Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements , 2009 .

[18]  Wei Xiongb,et al.  Investor attention , overconfidence and category learning , 2006 .

[19]  Jiang Wang,et al.  Trading Volume: Definitions, Data Analysis, and Implications of Portfolio Theory , 2000 .

[20]  Kent D. Daniel,et al.  Presentation Slides for 'Investor Psychology and Security Market Under and Overreactions' , 1998 .

[21]  J. C. Johnston,et al.  Attentional limitations in dual-task performance. , 1998 .

[22]  S. Yantis Control of visual attention. , 1998 .

[23]  John M. Griffin,et al.  Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole , 2001 .

[24]  Terrance Odean,et al.  Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders are Above Average , 1998 .

[25]  Victor L. Bernard,et al.  POST-EARNINGS-ANNOUNCEMENT DRIFT - DELAYED PRICE RESPONSE OR RISK PREMIUM , 1989 .

[26]  D. Hirshleifer Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing , 2001 .

[27]  Brad M. Barber,et al.  All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors , 2006 .

[28]  David A. Hirshleifer,et al.  Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information , 2010 .

[29]  Duane J. Seppi,et al.  The 'Ostrich Effect': Selective Attention to Information About Investments , 2005 .

[30]  Josef Lakonishok,et al.  Momentum Strategies , 1995 .

[31]  Shane A. Corwin,et al.  Limited Attention and the Allocation of Effort in Securities Trading , 2008 .

[32]  D. Hirshleifer,et al.  Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News , 2007 .

[33]  Frank Zhang,et al.  Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns , 2004 .

[34]  Kewei Hou,et al.  Market Frictions, Price Delay, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns , 2003 .

[35]  D. Hirshleifer,et al.  Do Investors Overvalue Firms with Bloated Balance Sheets? , 2004 .

[36]  F. T. Magiera Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows about Future Earnings , 1997 .

[37]  L. Summers,et al.  Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation , 1989 .

[38]  Lin Peng Learning with Information Capacity Constraints , 2005, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[39]  David A. Hirshleifer,et al.  Limited Investor Attention and Earnings-Related Under- and Over-Reactions , 2005 .

[40]  Gur Huberman,et al.  Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar , 2001 .

[41]  J. Stein,et al.  A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets , 1997 .

[42]  Stefano DellaVigna,et al.  Attention, Demographics, and the Stock Market , 2005 .

[43]  Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns , 2004 .

[44]  Michael J. Cooper,et al.  Market States and Momentum , 2004 .

[45]  Ron Kaniel,et al.  The High Volume Return Premium , 2001 .

[46]  Narasimhan Jegadeesh,et al.  Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency , 1993 .

[47]  Christopher J. Malloy,et al.  Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns , 2002 .

[48]  David I. Laibson,et al.  Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model , 2006 .

[49]  Ronnie Sadka,et al.  Momentum and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Anomalies: The Role of Liquidity Risk , 2006 .

[50]  D. Eric Hirst,et al.  Comprehensive income reporting and analysts' valuation judgments , 1998 .

[51]  Bruce D. Grundy,et al.  Understanding the Nature of the Risks and the Source of the Rewards to Momentum Investing , 1998 .

[52]  K. Rouwenhorst,et al.  International Momentum Strategies , 1997 .

[53]  R. Thaler,et al.  Does the Stock Market Overreact , 1985 .

[54]  R. Thaler,et al.  A Survey of Behavioral Finance , 2002 .

[55]  Andrea Frazzini,et al.  Economic Links and Predictable Returns , 2007 .

[56]  E. Fama,et al.  Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies , 1996 .

[57]  Charles M. C. Lee,et al.  Price Momentum and Trading Volume , 1998 .