Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.

[1]  F. Magnani,et al.  Growth patterns and carbon balance of Pinus radiata and Pseudotsuga menziesii plantations under climate change scenarios in Italy , 2004 .

[2]  M. Raupach.  Drag and drag partition on rough surfaces , 1992 .

[3]  B. Gardiner,et al.  Field and wind tunnel assessments of the implications of respacing and thinning for tree stability , 1997 .

[4]  Tait.  Future projections of growing degree days and frost in New Zealand and some implications for grape growing , 2008 .

[5]  C. P. Quine,et al.  Wind and Trees: Assessing the risk of wind damage to forests: practice and pitfalls , 1995 .

[6]  B. Medlyn,et al.  Forest productivity under climate change: a checklist for evaluating model studies , 2011 .

[7]  Anny Cazenave,et al.  Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections , 2007, Science.

[8]  J. Stone,et al.  Using a climatic niche model to predict the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the distribution of Douglas‐fir in New Zealand , 2011 .

[9]  Gert-Jan Nabuurs,et al.  Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries , 2003 .

[10]  R. Norby,et al.  CO2 Fertilization: When, Where, How Much? , 2007 .

[11]  J. A. Petty,et al.  Factors influencing stem breakage of conifers in high winds , 1985 .

[12]  Ola Sallnäs,et al.  WINDA—a system of models for assessing the probability of wind damage to forest stands within a landscape , 2004 .

[13]  John R. Moore.  Differences in maximum resistive bending moments of Pinus radiata trees grown on a range of soil types. , 2000 .

[14]  Ola Sallnäs,et al.  Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests. , 2010 .

[15]  A. Lugo,et al.  Climate Change and Forest Disturbances , 2001 .

[16]  W. Kurz,et al.  Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change , 2008, Nature.

[17]  G. Bonan.  Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests , 2008, Science.

[18]  Renwick,et al.  Transient Model Scenarios of Climate Changes for New Zealand , 2001 .

[19]  Michael S. Watt,et al.  Moving beyond simple linear allometric relationships between tree height and diameter , 2011 .

[20]  M. Kirschbaum,et al.  CenW, a forest growth model with linked carbon, energy, nutrient and water cycles , 1999 .

[21]  B. Nicoll,et al.  Adaptive growth of tree root systems in response to wind action and site conditions. , 1996, Tree physiology.

[22]  B. Gardiner,et al.  Comparison of two models for predicting the critical wind speeds required to damage coniferous trees , 2000 .

[23]  S. Running,et al.  Forest growth response to changing climate between 1961 and 1990 in Austria , 1999 .

[24]  H. Peltola,et al.  A mechanistic model for assessing the risk of wind and snow damage to single trees and stands of Scots pine, Norway spruce, and birch , 1999 .

[25]  B. Courbaud,et al.  Development of an individual tree-based mechanical model to predict wind damage within forest stands , 2004 .

[26]  Tait,et al.  Interpolation of daily solar radiation for New Zealand using a satellite data-derived cloud cover surface , 2009 .

[27]  M. Watt,et al.  Use of a process-based model to describe spatial variation in Pinus radiata productivity in New Zealand , 2011 .

[28]  C. Peterson,et al.  Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change. , 2000, The Science of the total environment.

[29]  Fernando Castedo-Dorado,et al.  Development of a stand density management diagram for radiata pine stands including assessment of stand stability , 2009 .

[30]  R. Neilson,et al.  Forest Processes and Global Environmental Change: Predicting the Effects of Individual and Multiple Stressors , 2001 .

[31]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research , 2007 .

[32]  John R Moore,et al.  A comparison of the relative risk of wind damage to planted forests in Border Forest Park, Great Britain, and the Central North Island, New Zealand , 2000 .

[33]  Anabel Sánchez,et al.  Likely effects of climate change on growth of Quercus ilex, Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica forests in the Mediterranean region , 2002 .

[34]  M. Kimberley,et al.  Development of models to predict Pinus radiata productivity throughout New Zealand , 2010 .

[35]  Xiaogu Zheng,et al.  Thin plate smoothing spline interpolation of daily rainfall for New Zealand using a climatological rainfall surface , 2006 .

[36]  C. Goulding.  Development of growth models for Pinus radiata in New Zealand — experience with management and process models , 1994 .

[37]  Nicholas John Cook,et al.  The Designer's Guide To Wind Loading Of Building Structures , 1986 .

[38]  K. Blennow,et al.  The probability of wind damage in forestry under a changed wind climate , 2008 .

[39]  K. Blennow,et al.  Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest , 2010 .

[40]  Barry Gardiner,et al.  A review of mechanistic modelling of wind damage risk to forests , 2008 .

[41]  A. Ausseil,et al.  Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes , 2012 .

[42]  Barry Gardiner,et al.  Improvements in anchorage provided by the acclimation of forest trees to wind stress , 2008 .

[43]  D. Ellsworth,et al.  Functional responses of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2– do photosynthetic and productivity data from FACE experiments support early predictions? , 2004 .

[44]  M. Kirschbaum,et al.  The carbon budget of Pinus radiata plantations in south-western Australia under four climate change scenarios. , 2009, Tree physiology.

[45]  Michael S. Watt,et al.  Predicting the severity of Dothistroma on Pinus radiata under current climate in New Zealand , 2011 .

[46]  B. Manley,et al.  Quantification of wind damage to New Zealand's planted forests , 2013 .