Vulnerability Assessment and the Damage Scenario in Seismic Risk AnalysisThe

In this Ph.D thesis two methods for the vulnerability assessment of built-up area have been proposed: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The thesis illustrates the theoretical bases and provides the defining parameters of the two proposed methods for different masonry and reinforced concrete building typologies. The implementation of the two proposed methods for the estimation of the expected economic losses and of the consequences to people and to buildings, in terms of distributions or fragility curves, is, moreover, illustrated. The methods can be employed either with properly surveyed data or with statistical existent data of different origin and quality. A different uncertainty characterises the vulnerability assessment and the consequent damage evaluation depending on the quantity and on the quality of the data available for the analysis. Thanks to the clear analytical definition of the proposed methods, they can be easily implemented in a GIS environment: there, crossing the hazard and the vulnerability analyses, the evaluation of damage scenarios becomes an obvious following step. The use of the proposed seismic risk analysis procedures for risk management purposes becomes, therefore, very effective. The possibility of a constant updating of data and the rather fast computational process, allows decision makers to construct simply different scenarios testing the effectiveness of different set of mitigation strategies. The opportunity to draw real time scenarios of the likely impact of an earthquake can be useful to make risk decisions during the first hours following the event.