Risk of Plasmodium vivax recurrences follows a 30-70 rule and indicates relapse heterogeneity in the population

A key characteristic of Plasmodium vivax parasites is their ability to adopt a latent liver-stage form called hypnozoites, able to cause relapse of infection months or years after a primary infection. Relapses of infection through hypnozoite activation are a major contributor to blood-stage infections in P vivax endemic regions and are thought to be influenced by factors such as febrile infections, immunity, and transmission intensity. Some of these factors may cause temporary changes in hypnozoite activation over time, leading to 'temporal heterogeneity' in reactivation risk. In addition, variation in exposure to infection may be a longer-term characteristic of individuals that leads to 'population heterogeneity' in hypnozoite activation. We analyze data on risk of P vivax in two previously published data sets from Papua New Guinea and the Thailand-Myanmar border region. Modeling different mechanisms of reactivation risk, we find strong evidence for population heterogeneity, with 30% of patients having almost 70% of all P vivax infections. Model fitting and data analysis indicates that individual variation in relapse risk is a primary source of heterogeneity of P vivax risk of recurrences.