Geographical analyses of wood chip potentials, costs and supply for sustainable energy production in Denmark

The biomass resource from forests is geographically distributed. In Denmark, as well as other countries, these resources are utilised for sustainable energy production. Supply and demand varies by energy plant location and size. Typically a bioenergy plant is located at a heat demand site. This results in a significant need for transportation of biomass resource, which has impact on the way bioenergy markets operate, and how the targets of sustainable development are met. Therefore an optimal transportation pattern is desired. The presented study uses a practical application of rasterbased geographical information systems (GIS) to perform cost-supply analysis of wood chip resources for energy production. Recoverable potentials are mapped using forest statistics, production forecasts and land use data. For bioenergy-plant sites the transportation costs for wood chips from the forests are analysed using cost distance analysis, which allows for the production of continuous transport cost surfaces. A geographical model of distributed resources and cost surfaces facilitates the production of cost-supply curves. These curves constitute an effective way to assess the costs of delivered biomass dependent on amount and location, and to analyse discrepancies in the way biomass markets operate. Results show that energy plants in areas with sparse forest cultivation and energy plants with a large consumption of biomass fuels have higher fuel costs in average $/tonnes. Therefore the results of this study may be used to select fuels by regional availability, and to assess the economic advantages of decentralised energy production. Cost-supply curves could also be used for sensitivity analyses at specific sites for managing economic risk of bioenergy plants, for sensitivity analysis of biomass recovering of different forest harvest management systems and for sensitivity analysis of different transportation management options.