Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims.

[1]  Peter J. Gleckler,et al.  Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise , 2008, Nature.

[2]  G. Meehl,et al.  Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2013 .

[3]  Stephan Lewandowsky,et al.  Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase , 2014 .

[4]  Gavin A. Schmidt,et al.  Reconciling warming trends , 2014 .

[5]  Stephan Lewandowsky,et al.  On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[6]  G. Meehl,et al.  Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming , 2014 .

[7]  J. Willis,et al.  Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating , 2015, Science.

[8]  R. Greatbatch,et al.  Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024 , 2015 .

[9]  J. Hansen,et al.  GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE , 2010 .

[10]  Carl A. Mears,et al.  Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature , 2014 .

[11]  W. Collins,et al.  Evaluation of climate models , 2013 .

[12]  M. Saier,et al.  Climate Change, 2007 , 2007 .

[13]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years , 2013 .

[14]  Stephan Lewandowsky,et al.  The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science , 2016 .

[15]  Yu Kosaka,et al.  Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling , 2013, Nature.

[16]  Agus Santoso,et al.  Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus , 2014 .

[17]  K. Cowtan,et al.  Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends , 2014 .

[18]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[19]  K. Calvin,et al.  The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 , 2011 .

[20]  R. Neely,et al.  The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change , 2011, Science.

[21]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale , 2011 .

[22]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Pause for thought , 2014 .

[23]  M. Mann,et al.  Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures , 2015, Science.

[24]  D. Bernie,et al.  Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte‐Carlo estimation technique , 2011 .

[25]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Debunking the climate hiatus , 2015, Climatic Change.

[26]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches , 2014 .

[27]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[28]  J. Marotzke,et al.  Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends , 2015, Nature.

[29]  Aixue Hu,et al.  Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods , 2011 .

[30]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus , 2015, Science.

[31]  P. Jones,et al.  Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set , 2012 .

[32]  Q. Fu,et al.  Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancies , 2014 .

[33]  Steven C. Sherwood,et al.  Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2) , 2015 .

[34]  Shang-Ping Xie,et al.  Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability , 2014 .

[35]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  Is the climate warming or cooling? , 2009 .

[36]  R. Knutti,et al.  Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled , 2014 .

[37]  John R. Christy,et al.  Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements , 2007 .

[38]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Has there been a hiatus? , 2015, Science.