Techno-economic comparison of series hybrid, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and regular cars

Abstract We examine the competitiveness of series hybrid compared to fuel cell, parallel hybrid, and regular cars. We use public domain data to determine efficiency, fuel consumption, total costs of ownership and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from drivetrain choices. The series hybrid drivetrain can be seen both as an alternative to petrol, diesel and parallel hybrid cars, as well as an intermediate stage towards fully electric or fuel cell cars. We calculate the fuel consumption and costs of four diesel-fuelled series hybrid, four plug-in hybrid and four fuel cell car configurations, and compared these to three reference cars. We find that series hybrid cars may reduce fuel consumption by 34–47%, but cost €5000–12,000 more. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 89–103 g CO 2  km −1 compared to reference petrol (163 g km −1 ) and diesel cars (156 g km −1 ). Series hybrid cars with wheel motors have lower weight and 7–21% lower fuel consumption than those with central electric motors. The fuel cell car remains uncompetitive even if production costs of fuel cells come down by 90%. Plug-in hybrid cars are competitive when driving large distances on electricity, and/or if cost of batteries come down substantially. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 60–69 g CO 2  km −1 .

[1]  R. N. Schock,et al.  Hydrogen as a future transportation fuel , 1996 .

[2]  Fritz G. Will,et al.  Impact of lithium abundance and cost on electric vehicle battery applications , 1996 .

[3]  Pedro de Almeida,et al.  The peak of oil production—Timings and market recognition , 2009 .

[4]  C. Wene Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy , 2000 .

[5]  J. Huijsmans,et al.  Clean and Green Hydrogen , 2006 .

[6]  Joan M. Ogden,et al.  Societal lifecycle costs of cars with alternative fuels/engines , 2004 .

[7]  Joan M. Ogden,et al.  A comparison of hydrogen, methanol and gasoline as fuels for fuel cell vehicles: implications for vehicle design and infrastructure development , 1999 .

[8]  Michael P Totten What About the Shortcuts? , 2003, Science.

[9]  Tomaž Katrašnik,et al.  Analytical framework for analyzing the energy conversion efficiency of different hybrid electric vehicle topologies , 2009 .

[10]  Joan M. Ogden,et al.  Hydrogen: The fuel of the future? , 2002 .

[11]  Ulrich Eberle,et al.  Fuel cell vehicles: Status 2007 , 2007 .

[12]  Hans-Holger Rogner,et al.  Hydrogen technologies and the technology learning curve , 1998 .

[13]  Björn Andersson,et al.  Metal resource constraints for electric-vehicle batteries , 2001 .

[14]  Brenda Johnston,et al.  Hydrogen: the energy source for the 21st century , 2005 .

[15]  Kwi Seong Jeong,et al.  Fuel economy and life-cycle cost analysis of a fuel cell hybrid vehicle , 2002 .

[16]  Mark A. Delucchi,et al.  Electric and Gasoline Vehicle Lifecycle Cost and Energy-Use Model , 2000 .

[17]  E. Nieuwlaar,et al.  Introduction to Energy Analysis , 2008 .

[18]  Daniel Sperling,et al.  Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions , 2001 .

[19]  W.G.J.H.M. van Sark,et al.  Introducing errors in progress ratios determined from experience curves , 2008 .

[20]  Osamu Kobayashi,et al.  Mass production cost of PEM fuel cell by learning curve , 2004 .

[21]  Marc Ross,et al.  Evaluation of energy consumption, emissions and cost of plug-in hybrid vehicles , 2009 .

[22]  Menahem Anderman,et al.  Advanced Batteries for Electric Vehicles: An Assessment of Performance, Cost, and Availability , 2000 .

[23]  J. M. Castelain,et al.  Cost Estimation During Design Step: Parametric Method versus Case Based Reasoning Method , 1999 .

[24]  Dimosthenis C. Katsis DEVELOPMENT OF A TESTBED FOR EVALUATION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE DRIVE PERFORMANCE , 1997 .

[25]  Peter Hoffmann,et al.  Tomorrow's Energy: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and the Prospects for a Cleaner Planet , 2001 .

[26]  Daniel William Forthoffer,et al.  Economic & commercial viability of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from an automotive manufacturer perspective , 2009 .

[27]  J. Romm The car and fuel of the future , 2006 .

[28]  Yongping Hou,et al.  The analysis for the efficiency properties of the fuel cell engine , 2007 .

[29]  André Faaij,et al.  Impact of hydrogen onboard storage technologies on the performance of hydrogen fuelled vehicles: A techno-economic well-to-wheel assessment , 2007 .

[30]  Ludmilla Schlecht Competition and alliances in fuel cell power train development , 2003 .

[31]  Giampaolo Manzolini,et al.  Energy analysis of electric vehicles using batteries or fuel cells through well-to-wheel driving cycle simulations , 2009 .

[32]  Wim Turkenburg,et al.  Technological learning in bioenergy systems , 2006 .

[33]  André Faaij,et al.  Techno-economic prospects of small-scale membrane reactors in a future hydrogen-fuelled transportation sector , 2006 .

[34]  Max Åhman,et al.  Assessing the future competitiveness of alternative powertrains , 2003 .

[35]  John V. Mitchell A new era for oil prices , 2006 .

[36]  N. Demirdöven,et al.  Hybrid Cars Now, Fuel Cell Cars Later , 2004, Science.

[37]  Henry D. Jacoby,et al.  Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis , 2006 .

[38]  David W Keith,et al.  Rethinking Hydrogen Cars , 2003, Science.

[39]  Vinod K. Natarajan,et al.  Comparative Assessment of Fuel Cell Cars , 2003 .

[40]  Vincent Mahieu,et al.  Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the european context , 2004 .

[41]  S. Hultén,et al.  Escaping lock-in: The case of the electric vehicle☆ , 1996 .

[42]  O. Johansson-Stenman,et al.  Costs and Benefits of Electric Vehicles , 2003 .

[43]  Wim Turkenburg,et al.  A comparison of electricity and hydrogen production systems with CO2 capture and storage—Part B: Chain analysis of promising CCS options , 2007 .

[44]  Max Åhman,et al.  Primary energy efficiency of alternative powertrains in vehicles , 2001 .

[45]  Wim Turkenburg,et al.  A comparison of electricity and hydrogen production systems with CO2 capture and storage. Part A: Review and selection of promising conversion and capture technologies , 2006 .

[46]  John B. Heywood,et al.  ON THE ROAD IN 2020 - A LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS OF NEW AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLOGIES , 2000 .