Heterogeneous Vulnerability of Zero-Carbon Power Grids under Climate-Technological Changes

The transition to decarbonized energy systems has become a priority at regional, national and global levels as a critical strategy to mitigate carbon emissions and therefore climate change. However, the vulnerabilities of the proposed zero-carbon power grid under climatic and technological changes have not been thoroughly examined. In this study, we focus on modeling the zero-carbon grid using a dataset that captures a broad variety of future climatic-technological scenarios, with New York State (NYS) as a case study. By accurately capturing the topology and operational constraints of the power grid, we identify spatiotemporal heterogeneity in vulnerabilities arising from the interplay of renewable resource availability, high load, and severe transmission line congestion. Our findings reveal a need for 30-65\% more firm, zero-emission capacity to ensure system reliability. Merely increasing wind and solar capacity is ineffective in improving reliability due to the spatial and temporal variations in vulnerabilities. This underscores the importance of considering spatiotemporal dynamics and operational constraints when making decisions regarding additional investments in renewable resources.