Towards regional grain yield forecasting with 1km-resolution EO biophysical products: Strengths and limitations at pan-European level

Abstract This study addresses the role of satellite Earth Observation (EO) indicators within an operational crop yield forecasting system for the European Union (EU) and neighbouring countries, by exploring the correlation between official yield statistics and indicators derived from fAPAR time-series at sub-national level for the period 1999–2012, and by identifying possible differences across agro-climatic conditions in Europe. A significant correlation between fAPAR and official yields (R2 > 0.6) was found in water-limited yield agro-climatic conditions (e.g. the Black Sea region and the Mediterranean basin) for all three crops studied. In regions where crops experience frequent water stress, most of the yield inter-annual variability is explained by substantial changes in leaf area from one year to another, and can be well captured by regional fAPAR time-series. By contrast, in regions characterized by high yields (e.g. northern Europe) – where water constraints are generally not frequent and, therefore, fAPAR inter-annual variability is low – the correlation between fAPAR and yield is weaker (R2  These results confirm the reliability of EO time-series for operational crop yield forecasting at regional level, but also suggest that additional meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) need to be taken into account to interpret EO products meaningfully. Moreover, specific issues related to the spatial resolution of the EO-products, and the absence of dynamic crop masks, currently impede access to crop-specific time-series in the fragmented agricultural landscapes of Europe, and restrict the use of 1-km biophysical products to major crops.

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