Impact of MPEX Upsonde Observations on Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Convective Event over Oklahoma

AbstractThis study examines the impact of assimilating three radiosonde profiles obtained from ground-based mobile systems during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) on analyses and convection-permitting model forecasts of the 31 May 2013 convective event over Oklahoma. These radiosonde profiles (in addition to standard observations) are assimilated into a 36-member mesoscale ensemble using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) before embedding a convection-permitting (3 km) grid and running a full ensemble of 9-h forecasts. This set of 3-km forecasts is compared to a control run that does not assimilate the MPEX soundings. The analysis of low- to midlevel moisture is impacted the most by the assimilation, but coherent mesoscale differences in temperature and wind are also seen, primarily downstream of the location of the soundings. The ensemble of forecasts of convection on the 3-km grid are improved the most in the first three hours of the forecast in a region where the analyzed position of low-le...

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