Assessing the Impacts of the Global Economic Crisis and Swine Flu on Inbound Tourism Demand in the United Kingdom

The recent economic crisis and swine flu pandemic have had significantly negative impacts on global tourism. Tourism in the United Kingdom has also suffered as a result of the two crises, although their actual impacts have yet to be evaluated. This study analyzes the impacts of these two phenomena on the demand for U.K. inbound tourism during the 2008Q1-2009Q2 period among visitors from the country’s 14 major visitor source markets. An econometric framework is proposed to separate and estimate the impacts of swine flu and the economic crisis on U.K. tourism demand.

[1]  Haiyan Song,et al.  Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting , 2012 .

[2]  Soocheong Jang,et al.  Travel motivations and destination choice: A study of British outbound market , 2002 .

[3]  Adam Blake,et al.  TOURISM CRISIS MANAGEMENT: US Response to September 11 , 2003 .

[4]  Lindsay Turner.  Learning and Ability to Pay: developing a Model to Forecast Ski Tourism , 2003 .

[5]  R. Tol,et al.  The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study , 2007 .

[6]  Haiyan Song,et al.  The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand , 2008 .

[7]  Yu-shan Wang,et al.  The impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on Taiwan's international inbound tourism demand , 2008, Tourism Management.

[8]  E. Smeral.  Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: Forecasts and Potential Risks , 2010 .

[9]  Haiyan Song,et al.  Modelling and forecasting the demand for Hong Kong tourism , 2003 .

[10]  Computable general equilibrium estimates of the impact of the Bali bombing on the Indonesian economy , 2009 .

[11]  Lisa Ruhanen,et al.  Volunteering tourism knowledge: A case from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) , 2008 .

[12]  P. Sheldon,et al.  The Global Financial Crisis and Tourism: Perspectives of the Academy , 2010 .

[13]  Haiyan Song,et al.  Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models , 2003 .

[14]  Alois Stutzer,et al.  Calculating Tragedy: Assessing the Costs of Terrorism , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[15]  G. Riddington.  Forecasting ski demand: comparing learning curve and varying parameter coefficient approaches , 1999 .

[16]  Gang Li,et al.  Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting , 2006 .

[17]  W. Edmunds,et al.  The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic. , 2010, Health economics.

[18]  Haiyan Song,et al.  Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Tourism in Asia , 2010 .

[19]  Haiyan Song,et al.  Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research , 2008 .

[20]  Haiyan Song,et al.  Tourism Demand Modeling: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach , 2003 .

[21]  S. Page,et al.  Health and the International Tourist , 1995 .

[22]  Roberto Roson,et al.  A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism , 2004 .

[23]  Jorge E. Araña,et al.  The impact of terrorism on tourism demand , 2008 .

[24]  Ku‐Hsieh Chen,et al.  A general equilibrium analysis of the economic impact of a tourism crisis: a case study of the SARS epidemic in Taiwan , 2009 .

[25]  Adam Blake,et al.  Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease on Tourism and the UK Economy , 2003 .