Assimilation of aggregated inputs into Delphi forecasts: A regression analysis

Abstract To examine the manner in which the individual assessments of a panel of delphi experts are combined into a delphi forecast, the supporting reasons they gave for their forecasts of 40 computer applications were coded into categories of assessed “technical feasibility,” “cost of initiating,” and “benefits or needs provided.” Even though different sets of experts provided these statements in support of their individual forecasts, with some experts emphasizing one aspect and others another, it was found that the median forecast of the entire panel was significantly related to the average proportion of reasons in each category which favored bringing about the development. That is, the delphi forecasts of computer applications suggest that the computer application is forecasted to occur sooner to the extent it was judged to be technically feasible, beneficial to users or society, and not costly to develop. The results indicate further that delphi forecasting among a group of experts has logical validity, and that individual contributions are integrated into a group outcome.