Extinction Thresholds and Metapopulation Persistence in Dynamic Landscapes

Models of metapopulations have focused on the effects of extinction and colonization rate upon metapopulation persistence and dynamics, assuming static landscapes wherein patches are neither created nor go extinct. However, for species living in ephemeral (patchy) habitats, landscapes are highly dynamic rather than static. In this article, we develop a lattice metapopulation model, of the patch occupancy type, based on interacting particle systems that incorporate explicitly both metapopulation and patch dynamics. Under this scenario, we study the effects of different regimes of patch dynamics upon metapopulation persistence. We analyze the lattice behavior by numerical simulations and a mean field approximation (MF). We show that metapopulation persistence and extinction are strongly influenced by the rate at which the landscape changes, in addition to the amount of habitat destroyed. We derive MF analytical expressions for extinction thresholds related to landscape properties such as habitat suitability and patch average lifetime. Using numerical simulations, we also show how these thresholds are quantitatively overestimated by the MF equations, although the qualitative behavior of the spatial model is well explained by the MF when the array of habitat patches is dynamic or static but connected in space and time. The implications for conservation are also discussed.

[1]  Brachet,et al.  Dispersal and metapopulation viability in a heterogeneous landscape , 1999, Journal of theoretical biology.

[2]  J. Travis,et al.  Habitat persistence, habitat availability and the evolution of dispersal , 1999, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[3]  A. King,et al.  Extinction Thresholds for Species in Fractal Landscapes , 1999 .

[4]  Hal Caswell,et al.  Habitat fragmentation and extinction thresholds on fractal landscapes , 1999 .

[5]  P. Marquet,et al.  Threshold parameters and metapopulation persistence , 1999, Bulletin of mathematical biology.

[6]  C. Flather,et al.  Numerically exploring habitat fragmentation effects on populations using cell-based coupled map lattices. , 1999, Theoretical population biology.

[7]  Nigel R. Franks,et al.  Habitat fragmentation, percolation theory and the conservation of a keystone species , 1998, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[8]  P. Marquet,et al.  Pattern formation in a patch occupancy metapopulation model: a cellular automata approach. , 1998, Journal of theoretical biology.

[9]  C. Klausmeier,et al.  Extinction in Multispecies and Spatially Explicit Models of Habitat Destruction , 1998, The American Naturalist.

[10]  Population size dependence, competitive coexistence and habitat destruction , 1998 .

[11]  Peter Kareiva,et al.  Spatial ecology : the role of space in population dynamics and interspecific interactions , 1998 .

[12]  B. Menge,et al.  Benthic-pelagic links and rocky intertidal communities: bottom-up effects on top-down control? , 1997, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[13]  D. McCullough,et al.  Metapopulations and Wildlife Conservation , 1997 .

[14]  Lenore Fahrig,et al.  Relative Effects of Habitat Loss and Fragmentation on Population Extinction , 1997 .

[15]  Clarence Lehman,et al.  Habitat Destruction, Dispersal, and Deterministic Extinction in Competitive Communities , 1997, The American Naturalist.

[16]  B. Menge,et al.  Rocky intertidal oceanography: An association between community structure and nearshore phytoplankton concentration , 1997 .

[17]  Peter Kareiva,et al.  Population dynamics in spatial habitats , 1997 .

[18]  A source-sink patch occupancy metapopulation model , 1997 .

[19]  R. Holt.  From Metapopulation Dynamics to Community Structure , 1997 .

[20]  Mats Gyllenberg,et al.  Structured Metapopulation Models , 1997 .

[21]  Robert D. Holt,et al.  7 – From Metapopulation Dynamics to Community Structure: Some Consequences of Spatial Heterogeneity , 1997 .

[22]  P. Marquet,et al.  A source - patch occupancy metapopulation models , 1997 .

[23]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  The Metapopulation Approach, Its History, Conceptual Domain, and Application to Conservation , 1997 .

[24]  R. May,et al.  Two-Species Metapopulation Models , 1997 .

[25]  Mundy,et al.  Hopes for the Future: Restoration Ecology and Conservation Biology , 1997 .

[26]  Ricard V. Solé,et al.  Habitat Fragmentation and Extinction Thresholds in Spatially Explicit Models , 1996 .

[27]  Kirk A. Moloney,et al.  The Effects of Disturbance Architecture on Landscape-Level Population Dynamics , 1996 .

[28]  D. Green,et al.  Viability of populations in a landscape , 1996 .

[29]  T. O. Crist,et al.  Critical Thresholds in Species' Responses to Landscape Structure , 1995 .

[30]  C. Dytham.  The effect of habitat destruction pattern on species persistence : a cellular model , 1995 .

[31]  R. Durrett,et al.  The Importance of Being Discrete (and Spatial) , 1994 .

[32]  H. Andrén,et al.  Effects of habitat fragmentation on birds and mammals in landscapes with different proportions of suitable habitat: a review , 1994 .

[33]  P. Vitousek.  Beyond Global Warming: Ecology and Global Change , 1994 .

[34]  M. Nowak,et al.  Habitat destruction and the extinction debt , 1994, Nature.

[35]  Simon A. Levin,et al.  Stochastic Spatial Models: A User's Guide to Ecological Applications , 1994 .

[36]  Simon A. Levin,et al.  A Spatial Patch Dynamic Modeling Approach to Pattern and Process in an Annual Grassland , 1994 .

[37]  S. Nee.  How populations persist , 1994, Nature.

[38]  David G. Green,et al.  Connectivity and complexity in landscapes and ecosystems , 1994 .

[39]  Jane Molofsky,et al.  POPULATION DYNAMICS AND PATTERN FORMATION IN THEORETICAL POPULATIONS , 1994 .

[40]  D. Tilman.  Competition and Biodiversity in Spatially Structured Habitats , 1994 .

[41]  P. Kaye.  Infectious diseases of humans: Dynamics and control , 1993 .

[42]  Robert H. Gardner,et al.  Lattices and landscapes , 1993 .

[43]  C. Tucker,et al.  Tropical Deforestation and Habitat Fragmentation in the Amazon: Satellite Data from 1978 to 1988 , 1993, Science.

[44]  金子 邦彦.  Theory and applications of coupled map lattices , 1993 .

[45]  Lenore Fahrig,et al.  Relative importance of spatial and temporal scales in a patchy environment , 1992 .

[46]  Robert M. May,et al.  Dynamics of metapopulations : habitat destruction and competitive coexistence , 1992 .

[47]  Hal Caswell,et al.  Ecological Interactions in Patchy Environments: From Patch-Occupancy Models to Cellular Automata , 1992 .

[48]  Nicholas J. Gotelli,et al.  Metapopulation Models: The Rescue Effect, the Propagule Rain, and the Core-Satellite Hypothesis , 1991, The American Naturalist.

[49]  L. Fahrig.  Simulation methods for developing general landscape-level hypotheses of single-species dynamics , 1991 .

[50]  G. Merriam,et al.  Landscape dynamics models , 1991 .

[51]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Single‐species metapopulation dynamics: concepts, models and observations , 1991 .

[52]  R. Lande,et al.  Extinction Thresholds in Demographic Models of Territorial Populations , 1987, The American Naturalist.

[53]  R. Orbach,et al.  Dynamics of Fractal Networks , 1986, Science.

[54]  M. Tsuchiya,et al.  Islands of Mytilus edulis as a habitat for small intertidal animals: effect of Mytilus age structure on the species composition of the associated fauna and community organization , 1986 .

[55]  S. Redner,et al.  Introduction To Percolation Theory , 2018 .

[56]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Single-Species Spatial Dynamics May Contribute to Long-Term Rarity and Commonness , 1985 .

[57]  G. Woodwell,et al.  A Comparison of Two Recent Estimates of Disturbance in Tropical Forests , 1985, Environmental Conservation.

[58]  S. A. Robertson,et al.  NONLINEAR OSCILLATIONS, DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS, AND BIFURCATIONS OF VECTOR FIELDS (Applied Mathematical Sciences, 42) , 1984 .

[59]  P. Holmes,et al.  Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems, and Bifurcations of Vector Fields , 1983, Applied Mathematical Sciences.

[60]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Coexistence of Competitors in Patchy Environment , 1983 .

[61]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Dynamics of regional distribution: the core and satellite species hypothesis , 1982 .

[62]  S. Levin,et al.  Selection of Intermediate Rates of Increase in Parasite-Host Systems , 1981, The American Naturalist.

[63]  A. Hastings.  Disturbance, coexistence, history, and competition for space , 1980 .

[64]  R. May,et al.  Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems , 1976, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[65]  R. Paine,et al.  Disturbance, patch formation, and community structure. , 1974, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[66]  S. Levin.  Dispersion and Population Interactions , 1974, The American Naturalist.

[67]  Montgomery Slatkin,et al.  Competition and Regional Coexistence , 1974 .

[68]  R. Macarthur,et al.  Competition among Fugitive Species in a Harlequin Environment , 1972 .

[69]  R. Levins.  Some Demographic and Genetic Consequences of Environmental Heterogeneity for Biological Control , 1969 .

[70]  W. Feller.  An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications , 1959 .

[71]  Feller William,et al.  An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications , 1950 .