Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes. In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s).

[1]  C. T. Bennett,et al.  Analysis of accidents during instrument approaches. , 1992, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[2]  Daniel A Handel,et al.  Fixed-wing medical transport crashes: characteristics associated with fatal outcomes. , 2011, Air medical journal.

[3]  Paul J. Freitas Passenger aviation security, risk management, and simple physics , 2012 .

[4]  David O'Hare,et al.  Cross-country VFR crashes: pilot and contextual factors. , 2002, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[5]  Robert Sargent,et al.  Development and evaluation of the Maintenance Error Decision Aid (MEDA) process , 2000 .

[6]  J. Concato,et al.  A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis. , 1996, Journal of clinical epidemiology.

[8]  R. H. Myers Classical and modern regression with applications , 1986 .

[9]  Loren S Groff,et al.  General aviation accidents in degraded visibility: a case control study of 72 accidents. , 2006, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[10]  Vitaly S. Guzhva,et al.  Impact of gender, age and experience of pilots on general aviation accidents. , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[11]  Andy P. Field,et al.  Discovering Statistics Using Ibm Spss Statistics , 2017 .

[12]  D. Hurlbut,et al.  Fatal light aircraft accidents in Ontario: a five year study. , 1996, Journal of forensic sciences.

[13]  B A Mueller,et al.  Risk factors for pilot fatalities in general aviation airplane crash landings. , 1998, JAMA.

[14]  Vitaly S. Guzhva,et al.  Factors contributing to fatalities in General Aviation accidents , 2007 .

[15]  Douglas D Boyd,et al.  Causes of fatal accidents for instrument-certified and non-certified private pilots. , 2014, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[16]  Joseph B. Sobieralski The cost of general aviation accidents in the United States , 2013 .

[17]  David O'Hare,et al.  Pilot behaviors in the face of adverse weather: A new look at an old problem. , 2005, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[18]  Douglas D Boyd Occupant injury and fatality in general aviation aircraft for which dynamic crash testing is certification-mandated. , 2015, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[19]  Douglas D Boyd,et al.  Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft. , 2015, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[20]  Scott A. Shappell,et al.  APPLYING REASON: THE HUMAN FACTORS ANALYSIS AND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (HFACS) , 2001 .

[21]  Douglas D Boyd,et al.  Fatal accident rates for instrument-rated private pilots. , 2014, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[22]  S P Baker,et al.  Correlates of pilot fatality in general aviation crashes. , 1999, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[23]  Susan P Baker,et al.  Crash risk in general aviation. , 2007, JAMA.

[24]  S P Baker,et al.  Factors associated with pilot error in aviation crashes. , 2001, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[25]  Yandong Qiang,et al.  Driving-while-intoxicated history as a risk marker for general aviation pilots. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.