Serum neurofilament light and MRI predictors of cognitive decline in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: Analysis from the MS-STAT randomised controlled trial

Background: Cognitive impairment affects 50%–75% of people with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PwSPMS). Improving our ability to predict cognitive decline may facilitate earlier intervention. Objective: The main aim of this study was to assess the relationship between longitudinal changes in cognition and baseline serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) in PwSPMS. In a multi-modal analysis, MRI variables were additionally included to determine if sNfL has predictive utility beyond that already established through MRI. Methods: Participants from the MS-STAT trial underwent a detailed neuropsychological test battery at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Linear mixed models were used to assess the relationships between cognition, sNfL, T2 lesion volume (T2LV) and normalised regional brain volumes. Results: Median age and Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) were 51 and 6.0. Each doubling of baseline sNfL was associated with a 0.010 [0.003–0.017] point per month faster decline in WASI Full Scale IQ Z-score (p = 0.008), independent of T2LV and normalised regional volumes. In contrast, lower baseline volume of the transverse temporal gyrus was associated with poorer current cognitive performance (0.362 [0.026–0.698] point reduction per mL, p = 0.035), but not change in cognition. The results were supported by secondary analyses on individual cognitive components. Conclusion: Elevated sNfL is associated with faster cognitive decline, independent of T2LV and regional normalised volumes.