A Simulation-Based Approach in Estimating Waiting Time for Ophthalmology Outpatients

In this paper, an approach to estimating waiting time is presented for outpatients visiting the department of ophthalmology. It determines the number of virtual outpatients according to the probability density functions of the gamma distribution. Assignments of arrival time intervals for such outpatients depend on random numbers generated from the exponential distribution. It assumes that outpatients undergo all examinations within the waiting time equal to the difference between the start time point of consultation and arrival time. The examinations are virtually managed according to six rules established by the surveys at the hospital. A proposed system requires a day of the week and arrival time of a target outpatient desiring, disease name, and name of ophthalmologist at the time of making an appointment to estimate the waiting time. It is revealed that the difference between estimated waiting time and actual waiting time is acceptable to outpatients.