Towards a tipping point? Exploring the capacity to self-regulate Antarctic tourism using agent-based modelling

ABSTRACT Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tourism has rapidly grown since 1991 and is currently picking up again after the recent global economic downturn. Tourism activities are subject to the rules of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and the decisions made by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties (ATCPs), but within this context, the industry has considerable freedom to self-organise. The industry is self-regulated by a voluntary member-based group, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). Researchers and policy-makers express concern about IAATO's ability to deal with further tourism development and the environmental consequences. This study applies a new approach to understand what affects self-regulation, consisting of a literature review and agent-based modelling (ABM). The review identifies four challenges for self-regulation: operator commitment, tourism growth, operator diversification, and accidents. The ABM simulations help conceptualise the complex concepts and theories surrounding self-regulation. Self-regulation is measured by the capacity of the simulated self-regulatory system to maintain a majority membership at the end of 20 years. The model suggests that a number of the challenges are nonlinear and have tipping points. This approach provides insights that industry officials and policy-makers can use to proactively regulate Antarctic tourism.

[1]  T. Tin,et al.  Setting the Scene: Human Activities, Environmental Impacts and Governance Arrangements in Antarctica , 2014 .

[2]  Pietro Terna,et al.  How to build and use agent-based models in social science , 2000 .

[3]  W. Fagan,et al.  Spatial patterns of tour ship traffic in the Antarctic Peninsula region , 2009, Antarctic Science.

[4]  T. Tin,et al.  Antarctic Futures: Human Engagement with the Antarctic Environment , 2014 .

[5]  M. Lamers,et al.  Reaching Consensus on Antarctic Tourism Regulation , 2013 .

[6]  Uta Berger,et al.  Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology , 2005, Science.

[7]  Birgit Müller,et al.  A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models , 2006 .

[8]  MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY,et al.  Membership directory , 1975, Newsletter, European Labor and Working Class History.

[9]  B. Stonehouse,et al.  Tourist impacts and management in the Antarctic Peninsula area. , 1995 .

[10]  Kees Bastmeijer,et al.  Regulating Antarctic Tourism and the Precautionary Principle , 2004, American Journal of International Law.

[11]  M. Olson,et al.  The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. , 1973 .

[12]  C. Hall,et al.  The regulation of Antarctic tourism. , 1995 .

[13]  Bas Amelung,et al.  Scenario Development for Antarctic Tourism: Exploring the Uncertainties , 2006 .

[14]  E. Stewart,et al.  A review of tourism research in the polar regions. , 2010 .

[15]  Sidney C. Sufrin,et al.  The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. , 1966 .

[16]  R. Headland.  Historical development of Antarctic tourism , 1994 .

[17]  A. McIntosh,et al.  From frozen continent to tourism hotspot? Five decades of Antarctic tourism development and management, and a glimpse into the future , 2011 .

[18]  K. Bricker.  The International Ecotourism Society , 2017 .

[19]  Peter Convey,et al.  Biological invasions in the Antarctic: extent, impacts and implications , 2005, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[20]  H. Possingham,et al.  Challenges to the Future Conservation of the Antarctic , 2012, Science.

[21]  M. Lamers,et al.  Strategic challenges of tourism development and governance in Antarctica: taking stock and moving forward , 2012 .

[22]  J. Splettstoesser.  IAATO's stewardship of the antarctic environment: a history of tour operator's concern for a vulnerable part of the world , 2000 .

[23]  M. Lamers,et al.  Reaching Consensus on Antarctic Tourism Regulation: Calibrating the Human-Nature Relationship? , 2012 .

[24]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[25]  E. Ostrom,et al.  Revisiting the commons: local lessons, global challenges. , 1999, Science.

[26]  M. Lück,et al.  Antarctic tourism introduction. , 2011 .

[27]  E. Ostrom.  Understanding Institutional Diversity , 2005 .

[28]  S. Ham,et al.  Antarctic tourists: ambassadors or consumers? , 2008, Polar Record.

[29]  P. B. Davis.  Antarctic visitor behaviour: are guidelines enough? , 1995, Polar Record.

[30]  J. Gareth Polhill,et al.  The ODD protocol: A review and first update , 2010, Ecological Modelling.

[31]  D. Haase,et al.  Heading into uncharted territory? Exploring the institutional robustness of self-regulation in the Antarctic tourism sector , 2009 .