Systems Prediction: The Integration of Descriptive, Experimental and Theoretical Approaches

The most critical aspects of an environmental impact analysis is the determination of whether or not ecological change means ecological stress. As Chairman of the Michigan Environmental Review Board (MERB) for the last three years, I have had the opportunity to debate the relationship between change and stress for a large number of environmental issues covering a wide variety of impacts, including Project Seafarer, the Department of Navy's 3,000 square mile communication antennae which would emit low frequency, electromagnetic radiation; the thermal effluent impact from electrical generation plants on the shore of Lake Michigan; the environmental impacts of polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) in ecological food chains; the ecological change anticipated with the establishment of the Gypsy moth in Michigan; and the ecological impact of oil exploration and development on the elk herd in the Pigeon River Country State Forest. All of these case studies came to MERB as a major environmental concern based on the belief that physical, thermal, chemical and biological alterations of the existing conditions would constitute a stress to the ecology of Michigan.