Disturbances to Urban Mobility and Comprehensive Estimation of Economic Losses

Civil infrastructure systems are disturbed by natural or man-made hazards at an increasing frequency and severity. Among these systems, transportation systems are especially vulnerable due to their nature and are of significant importance to urban built environments as they maintain the mobility of urban dwellers and goods. Mobility disturbances are significant not only due to the direct losses associated but also due to the greater economic impacts driven by indirect losses stemming from the economic interactions of regions and sectors. Therefore, understanding the economic impacts of urban mobility disturbances is critical. To achieve a better understanding of the status quo of the research on transportation disturbances and economic impact analysis, a literature review was conducted. The review indicates that most of the articles fail to leverage realistic hazard impact information and explicit network modeling, consequently jeopardizing the credibility of the results. To begin addressing the gaps in the field, an interdisciplinary framework was designed to investigate the economic impacts of mobility disturbances. To validate the framework, a case study was conducted to estimate the economic impacts of commuting-based mobility disturbances resulting from a potential earthquake scenario in the Greater Los Angeles Area. The direct and indirect economic losses were estimated to be 285.49 and 93.48 million dollars, respectively. The results indicated that the economic losses could vary significantly among regions as well as industries. Among the five counties in the study region, Los Angeles County suffered the most. In addition, industries related to finance, education and scientific services, etc. were estimated to experience larger losses.

[1]  Geoffrey J. D. Hewings,et al.  Retrofit Priority of Transport Network Links under an Earthquake , 2003 .

[2]  Anne S. Kiremidjian,et al.  Treatment of uncertainties in seismic risk analysis of transportation systems , 2006 .

[3]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Managing the risk of terrorism to interdependent infrastructure systems through the dynamic inoperability input–output model , 2006, Syst. Eng..

[4]  P. Gordon,et al.  TransNIEMO: economic impact analysis using a model of consistent inter-regional economic and network equilibria , 2014 .

[5]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Managing the risk of terrorism to interdependent infrastructure systems through the dynamic inoperability input–output model , 2006 .

[6]  Douglas Crawford-Brown,et al.  Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[7]  Elise Miller-Hooks,et al.  Measuring the performance of transportation infrastructure systems in disasters: a comprehensive review , 2015 .

[8]  Arpita Ghosh,et al.  Input-Output Approach in an Allocation System , 1958 .

[9]  R. R. Tan,et al.  Impact estimation of flooding in Manila: An inoperability input-output approach , 2013, 2013 IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium.

[10]  Hairui Wei,et al.  Exploring the concept of value creation in program planning and systems engineering processes , 2010 .

[11]  Sharada Vadali,et al.  Economic costs of critical infrastructure failure in bi-national regions and implications for resilience building: Evidence from El Paso–Ciudad Juarez , 2015 .

[12]  A. Rose.  DEFINING AND MEASURING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE TO DISASTERS , 2004 .

[13]  Shital A. Thekdi,et al.  Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario‐Based Input‐Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations , 2016, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  Erik Dietzenbacher,et al.  In Vindication of the Ghosh Model: A Reinterpretation as a Price Model , 1997 .

[15]  Masanobu Shinozuka,et al.  Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake , 2001 .

[16]  W. Leontief.  Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States , 1936 .

[17]  Joji Tokui,et al.  The economic impact of supply chain disruptions from the Great East-Japan earthquake , 2017 .

[18]  Jasmine Siu Lee Lam,et al.  Estimating the economic losses of port disruption due to extreme wind events , 2015 .

[19]  Joost R. Santos,et al.  Modeling the Demand Reduction Input‐Output (I‐O) Inoperability Due to Terrorism of Interconnected Infrastructures * , 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[20]  Feng Xie,et al.  Evaluating the effects of the I-35W bridge collapse on road-users in the twin cities metropolitan region , 2008 .

[21]  Euijune Kim,et al.  Indirect Impact of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents Using an Integrated Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model with a Microsimulation Module on the Korean Transportation Network , 2016 .

[22]  Norio Okada,et al.  Economic Loss Assessment due to Railroad and Highway Disruptions , 2007 .

[23]  A. Rose,et al.  Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions , 2005 .

[24]  Stéphane Hallegatte,et al.  An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[25]  JiYoung Park.  The Economic Impacts of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports: Applying the Supply-Driven NIEMO (National Interstate Economic Model) , 2008 .

[26]  J. Oosterhaven.  ON THE PLAUSIBILITY OF THE SUPPLY-DRIVEN INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL , 1988 .

[27]  K. Nasserasadi,et al.  AN INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE: A CASE STUDY OF TEHRAN , 2016 .

[28]  Jasmine Siu Lee Lam,et al.  Estimating economic losses of industry clusters due to port disruptions , 2016 .

[29]  Satish V. Ukkusuri,et al.  Direct transportation economic impacts of highway networks disruptions using public data from the United States , 2016 .

[30]  Harry W. Richardson,et al.  The State‐by‐State Economic Impacts of the 2002 Shutdown of the Los Angeles–Long Beach Ports , 2008 .

[31]  Ming Dong,et al.  Inoperability input‐output modeling (IIM) of disruptions to supply chain networks , 2010, Syst. Eng..

[32]  P. Gordon,et al.  Estimating the State-by-State Economic Impacts of Hurricane Katrina , 2007 .

[33]  J. Hillier,et al.  Extending natural hazard impacts: an assessment of landslide disruptions on a national road transportation network , 2017 .

[34]  Alan W. Johnson,et al.  Case Study: Energy Industry Economic Impacts from Ohio River Transportation Disruption , 2012 .

[35]  Harry W. Richardson,et al.  Adding a freight network to a national interstate input–output model: a TransNIEMO application for California , 2011 .

[36]  E. E. Koks,et al.  A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis , 2016 .

[37]  Mayada Omer,et al.  Assessing resilience in a regional road-based transportation network , 2013 .

[38]  P. Gordon,et al.  Earthquake Disaster Mitigation for Urban Transportation Systems: An Integrated Methodology that Builds on the Kobe and Northridge Experiences , 2004 .

[39]  Anne S. Kiremidjian,et al.  Issues in Seismic Risk Assessment of Transportation Networks , 2007 .

[40]  Chunhua Li,et al.  Quantifying cascading effects triggered by disrupted transportation due to the Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm: implications for disaster risk management , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[41]  Thomas L. Landers,et al.  Interdependent Impacts of Inoperability at Multi-Modal Transportation Container Terminals , 2011 .

[42]  C. J. van Westen,et al.  Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India , 2010 .

[43]  Masanobu Shinozuka,et al.  Socio-economic effect of seismic retrofit of bridges for highway transportation networks: a pilot study , 2010 .

[44]  Chris Bachmann,et al.  Quantifying the Criticality of Highway Infrastructure for Freight Transportation , 2017 .

[45]  Joost R. Santos,et al.  Measuring changes in international production from a disruption: Case study of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami , 2012 .

[46]  S. Tsuchiya,et al.  A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach , 2008 .

[47]  Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts,et al.  Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models , 2015 .

[48]  David Enke,et al.  Case Study: Applying a Regional Cge Model for Estimation of Indirect Economic Losses Due to Damaged Highway Bridges , 2007 .

[49]  H. Shibusawa,et al.  Evaluating the economic damages of transport disruptions using a transnational and interregional input–output model for Japan, China, and South Korea , 2017 .

[50]  Lucio Soibelman,et al.  Disaster Economics and Networked Transportation Infrastructures: Status Quo and a Multi-disciplinary Framework to Estimate Economic Losses , 2018, EG-ICE.

[51]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Application of the Inoperability Input‐Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[52]  Karen Lowrie,et al.  Passenger Rail Security, Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network, Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[53]  Adam Rose,et al.  ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF A PORT SHUTDOWN: THE SPECIAL ROLE OF RESILIENCE , 2013 .

[54]  Dan Wei,et al.  Economic Impacts of a California Tsunami , 2016 .

[55]  J. Lam,et al.  Economic impact of port disruptions on industry clusters: A case study of Shenzhen , 2015, 2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS).

[56]  Harry W. Richardson,et al.  Simulating the State-by-State Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Three Major US Ports: Applying NIEMO (National Interstate Economic Model) , 2007 .

[57]  M. Thissen.  The indirect economic effects of a terrorist attack on transport infrastructure: a proposal for a SAGE , 2004 .

[58]  Hirokazu Tatano,et al.  Economic Impacts of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Tsunami , 2013 .

[59]  H. Nachtmann,et al.  Economic impact analysis of inland waterway disruption response , 2017 .