Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations, 1960–2025

Abstract We analyze data for fourteen foundational European Union Nations covering the period 1960–2000 to estimate the effects of demographic and economic factors on energy consumption. We find that population size and age structure have clear effects on energy consumption. Economic development and urbanization also contribute substantially to changes in energy consumption. We use the resultant model to project energy consumption for the year 2025 based on demographic and economic projections to assess the implications of various demographic scenarios. The projections suggest that the expected decline of population growth in Europe will help curtail expansion in energy consumption.

[1]  P. Ehrlich,et al.  IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH , 1971, Science.

[2]  Jonathan N. Katz,et al.  What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data , 1995, American Political Science Review.

[3]  Brian C. O'Neill,et al.  Europe's Population at a Turning Point , 2003, Science.

[4]  Richard A. Kerr,et al.  The Next Oil Crisis Looms Large--and Perhaps Close , 1998, Science.

[5]  Craig Bond Hatfield,et al.  Oil back on the global agenda , 1997, Nature.

[6]  Joel E. Cohen,et al.  How Many People Can the Earth Support , 1998 .

[7]  M. Roberts,et al.  Overshoot. The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change. , 1980 .

[8]  Zong-ci Zhao,et al.  Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , 2001 .

[9]  P. Ehrlich,et al.  One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future , 2004 .

[10]  P. Ehrlich.  The Population Bomb. , 1962, Canadian Medical Association journal.

[11]  J. Foster,et al.  The absolute general law of environmental degradation under capitalism , 1992 .

[12]  K. Namboodiri.  Ecological demography: its place in sociology. , 1988 .

[13]  A. Shi,et al.  The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data , 2003 .

[14]  A. Mazur.  How does population growth contribute to rising energy consumption in America? , 1994 .

[15]  K. Deffeyes.  Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage , 2008 .

[16]  Cheng Hsiao,et al.  Analysis of Panel Data , 1987 .

[17]  Paul R. Ehrlich,et al.  Termination of Pregnancy bill , 1966 .

[18]  J. Williamson,et al.  International Nongovernmental Organizations and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Developing World: A Quantitative, Cross-National Analysis* , 2004 .

[19]  K. Blok,et al.  The direct and indirect energy requirement of households in the European Union , 2003 .

[20]  Vaclav Smil,et al.  Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties , 2005 .

[21]  O. D. Duncan.  From Social System to Ecosystem , 1961 .

[22]  Dale S. Rothman,et al.  Environmental Kuznets curves—real progress or passing the buck?: A case for consumption-based approaches , 1998 .

[23]  R. Wyman.  The Projection Problem , 2003 .

[24]  J. Foster,et al.  Ecology Against Capitalism , 2002 .

[25]  Thomas Dietz,et al.  Tracking the Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecological Impacts , 2004, Ambio.

[26]  Allan Schnaiberg,et al.  The Environment: From Surplus to Scarcity , 1980 .

[27]  Arik Levinson,et al.  Examining the Evidence on Environmental Regulations and Industry Location , 2004 .

[28]  Thomas Dietz,et al.  Climate Change and Society , 1998, Annual Review of Sociology.

[29]  E. Rosa,et al.  Key Challenges to Ecological Modernization Theory , 2003 .

[30]  Philip M. Hauser,et al.  The Study of Population. , 1959 .

[31]  E. Rosa,et al.  Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. , 1997, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[32]  Soumyananda Dinda.  Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey , 2004 .

[33]  Chris Campbell,et al.  The Coming Oil Crisis , 2004 .

[34]  J. Foster.  Marx's Theory of Metabolic Rift: Classical Foundations for Environmental Sociology1 , 1999, American Journal of Sociology.

[35]  R. Parks,et al.  Efficient Estimation of a System of Regression Equations when Disturbances are Both Serially and Contemporaneously Correlated , 1967 .

[36]  E. Rosa,et al.  STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts , 2003 .

[37]  P. Ehrlich,et al.  Human population and the global environment. , 1974, American scientist.

[38]  Loren Lutzenhiser,et al.  Social Stratification and Environmental Degradation: Understanding Household CO2 Production , 1993 .

[39]  Paul C. Stern,et al.  Environmentally significant consumption : research directions , 1997 .

[40]  John P. Holdren,et al.  Population and the energy problem , 1991 .

[41]  Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez,et al.  Social Determinants of Deforestation in Developing Countries: A Cross-National Study , 1998 .

[42]  G. Daily,et al.  Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity , 2003, Nature.

[43]  Eric Neumayer,et al.  Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution , 2004 .

[44]  J. Dehart,et al.  Does I = PAT Work in Local Places? , 2000 .

[45]  Martin O'Connor,et al.  Is Capitalism Sustainable?: Political Economy and the Politics of Ecology , 1994 .

[46]  E. Rosa,et al.  A rift in modernity? assessing the anthropogenic sources of global climate change with the STIRPAT model , 2003 .

[47]  Richard York.  Cross-National Variation in the Size of Passenger Car Fleets: A Study in Environmentally Significant Consumption , 2003 .

[48]  Jeffrey M. Wooldridge,et al.  Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach , 1999 .

[49]  William R. Catton,et al.  What Environmental Sociologists Have in Common (whether Concerned with “Built” or “Natural” Environments)* , 1983 .

[50]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .