An Intuitionistic Fuzzy-Based DEMATEL to Rank Risks of Construction Projects

The modern-day project management has focused on the risks management due mainly to the complexities in nowadays projects. On this factual basis, recognizing and mitigating the most critical project risks assist in achieving more efficiency in the project management. Therefore, an effective project management system will help projects not to fail meeting their due dates, not to fall short on customer expectations, and also not to exceed the budget. In this article, an intuitionistic fuzzy Decision making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) is presented in order to prioritize risks of the construction projects. In this study, the Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) presented by the Project Management Institutes’ (PMI) is utilized as a framework. The project expert opinions are collected as a source of knowledge through a number of questionnaires. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) theory which benefits from a number of merits compared to classic fuzzy sets theory is applied to tackle the vagueness and imprecision of human subjective judgments. The results have revealed that “External” risks were the most significant risk categories in the construction projects.

[1]  Madjid Tavana,et al.  A conceptual analytic network model for evaluating and selecting third-party reverse logistics providers , 2016 .

[2]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Risk assessment of construction projects , 2010 .

[3]  David Parker,et al.  Action research to explore perceptions of risk in project management , 2004 .

[4]  S. Meysam Mousavi,et al.  A fuzzy decision-making model for risk ranking with an application to an onshore gas refinery , 2009 .

[5]  Ru-Jen Lin Using fuzzy DEMATEL to evaluate the green supply chain management practices , 2013 .

[6]  M. Askari,et al.  An Integrated Method for Ranking of Risk in BOT Projects , 2014 .

[7]  Huawen Liu,et al.  Multi-criteria decision-making methods based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[8]  H. Frank Cervone,et al.  Project risk management , 2006, OCLC Syst. Serv..

[9]  Huan-Ming Chuang,et al.  Improving Project Risk Management by a Hybrid MCDM Model Combining DEMATEL with DANP and VIKOR Methods—An Example of Cloud CRM , 2016 .

[10]  Yao-Chen Kuo,et al.  Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects , 2013 .

[11]  David Baccarini,et al.  The risk ranking of projects: a methodology , 2001 .

[12]  Jun Ye,et al.  Expected value method for intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy multicriteria decision-making problems , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[13]  S. Meysam Mousavi,et al.  Risk identification and assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: A fuzzy multi attribute decision making model , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[14]  Siamak Haji Yakhchali,et al.  Risk ranking of tunnel construction projects by using the ELECTRE technique under a fuzzy environment , 2013 .

[15]  Hassan Mishmast Nehi,et al.  Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and it's applications in fuzzy optimization problem , 2005 .

[16]  Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam,et al.  A novel approach based on non-parametric resampling with interval analysis for large engineering project risks , 2011 .

[17]  Joseph H. M. Tah,et al.  A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic , 2000 .

[18]  Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam,et al.  Risk ranking in mega projects by fuzzy compromise approach: A comparative analysis , 2014, J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst..

[19]  Krassimir T. Atanassov,et al.  Intuitionistic fuzzy sets , 1986 .

[20]  S. Ebrahimnejad,et al.  A model for risk evaluation in construction projects based on fuzzy MADM , 2008, 2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology.

[21]  Irem Dikmen,et al.  Risk assessment of international construction projects using the analytic network process , 2009 .

[22]  Seyed Bagher Hosseini,et al.  Risk assessment model selection in construction industry , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[23]  Mohammadsadegh Mobin,et al.  An Integrated Gray-Fuzzy Cause and Effect Approach to Determine the Most Significant Categories of Project Risks , 2015 .

[24]  Wei-Wen Wu,et al.  Developing global managers' competencies using the fuzzy DEMATEL method , 2007, Expert Syst. Appl..

[25]  Mahdi Saeedpoor,et al.  An intuitionistic fuzzy DEMATEL methodology for prioritising the components of SWOT matrix in the Iranian insurance industry , 2014 .

[26]  Mohammadsadegh Mobin,et al.  A HYBRID APPROACH OF INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY SET THEORY AND DEMATEL METHOD TO PRIORITIZE SELECTION CRITERIA OF BANK BRANCHES LOCATIONS , 2015 .

[27]  Amin Vafadarnikjoo,et al.  Intuitionistic fuzzy based DEMATEL method for developing green practices and performances in a green supply chain , 2015, Expert Syst. Appl..

[28]  Zeshui Xu,et al.  Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[29]  S.M. Mousavi,et al.  Risk identification and analysis concurrently: Group Decision Making afpproach , 2008, 2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology.

[30]  Pejman Rezakhani,et al.  Fuzzy MCDM Model for Risk Factor Selection in Construction Projects , 2012 .

[31]  A. Gabus,et al.  Perceptions of the world problematique: communication procedure, communicating with those bearing collective responsibility , 1973 .

[32]  Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam,et al.  A Fuzzy Comprehensive Approach for Risk Identification and Prioritization Simultaneously in EPC Projects , 2011 .

[33]  Osman Taylan,et al.  Construction projects selection and risk assessment by fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methodologies , 2014, Appl. Soft Comput..

[34]  Madjid Tavana,et al.  An Integrated Intuitionistic Fuzzy AHP and SWOT Method for Outsourcing Reverse Logistics Highlights , 2015 .

[35]  Amin Vafadar Nikjoo,et al.  RANKING OF PROJECT RISKS BASED ON THE PMBOK STANDARD BY FUZZY DEMATEL , 2012 .

[36]  Jun Liu,et al.  An integrated AHP-DEA methodology for bridge risk assessment , 2008, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[37]  Gülçin Büyüközkan,et al.  Multi Criteria Group Decision Making Approach for Smart Phone Selection Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS , 2016, Int. J. Comput. Intell. Syst..

[38]  A. Gabus,et al.  World Problems, An Invitation to Further Thought within the Framework of DEMATEL , 1972 .

[39]  Jian-Bo Yang,et al.  Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence: Potential usage for decision making and risk analysis in construction project management , 2011 .

[40]  Peter E. D. Love,et al.  Management of risks in information technology projects , 2004, Ind. Manag. Data Syst..

[41]  Amin Vafadarnikjoo,et al.  A grey DEMATEL approach to develop third-party logistics provider selection criteria , 2016, Ind. Manag. Data Syst..

[42]  Amin Vafadarnikjoo,et al.  Commentary on 'Construction projects selection and risk assessment by Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS methodologies' [Applied Soft Computing 17 (2014): 105-116] , 2015, Appl. Soft Comput..