Good probabilistic forecasters: The ‘consumer's’ perspective

Abstract There is an established literature describing how probabilistic forecasts, and hence forecasters, should be evaluated. The present paper takes a different and heretofore neglected perspective on evaluation. It addresses how those who receive and use probabilistic predictions—forecast ‘consumers’—appraise these assessments. Results indicate that there are reliable and important differences between subjective and formal evaluation principles. Among the distinctive features of common subjective appraisal strategies are: (a) an emphasis on judgments being categorically ‘correct’; (b) special attention to forecast extremeness; (c) the desire for good explanations of forecasts; and (d) the sensitivity of appraisals to how pertinent information is displayed to the evaluator. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.