Seasonal precipitation reconstruction and teleconnections with ENSO based on tree ring analysis of Pinus cooperi

Tendencies of climatic variability indicate that northern Mexico will soon suffer from severe drought. Modeling the influence of climate and ecological processes would help researchers better understand the future implication of climatic variations. Here, we reconstructed historical seasonal precipitation using dendrochronological indices of Pinus cooperi and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). Correlation analysis was conducted to establish the precipitation response period; then a reconstruction model using independent variables was constructed using regression procedures. Available data were calibrated and verified to strengthen and validate the modeled reconstruction. Precipitation from the previous winter was best correlated with tree growth. Regression procedures showed that the residual chronology associated in a linear model with El Niño 3.4 explained 47 % of seasonal precipitation variability. This study contributes to a better understanding of historical variations in precipitation and the influence of ENSO in common tree species of northern Mexico to help land managers improve local forest management in a climate change scenario.

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