Stochastic Nash equilibrium problems: sample average approximation and applications

This paper presents a Nash equilibrium model where the underlying objective functions involve uncertainty and nonsmoothness. The well-known sample average approximation method is applied to solve the problem and the first order equilibrium conditions are characterized in terms of Clarke generalized gradients. Under some moderate conditions, it is shown that with probability one, a statistical estimator (a Nash equilibrium or a Nash-C-stationary point) obtained from sample average approximate equilibrium problem converges to its true counterpart. Moreover, under some calmness conditions of the Clarke generalized derivatives, it is shown that with probability approaching one exponentially fast by increasing sample size, the Nash-C-stationary point converges to a weak Nash-C-stationary point of the true problem. Finally, the model is applied to stochastic Nash equilibrium problem in the wholesale electricity market.

[1]  M. Fukushima,et al.  Solving stochastic mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints via approximation and smoothing implicit programming with penalization , 2008, Math. Program..

[2]  Endre Pap,et al.  Handbook of measure theory , 2002 .

[3]  Roger J.-B. Wets,et al.  Probabilistic bounds (via large deviations) for the solutions of stochastic programming problems , 1995, Ann. Oper. Res..

[4]  R. Aumann Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality Author ( s ) , 1987 .

[5]  Alan A. Carruth,et al.  Where Have Two Million Trade Union Members Gone , 1988 .

[6]  R. Wets,et al.  Consistency of Minimizers and the SLLN for Stochastic Programs 1 , 1995 .

[7]  R. Tyrrell Rockafellar,et al.  Asymptotic Theory for Solutions in Statistical Estimation and Stochastic Programming , 1993, Math. Oper. Res..

[8]  Stephen M. Robinson,et al.  Regularity and Stability for Convex Multivalued Functions , 1976, Math. Oper. Res..

[9]  Hess Christian,et al.  CHAPTER 14 – Set-Valued Integration and Set-Valued Probability Theory: An Overview , 2002 .

[10]  Tito Homem-de-Mello,et al.  Estimation of Derivatives of Nonsmooth Performance Measures in Regenerative Systems , 2001, Math. Oper. Res..

[11]  Blaise Allaz,et al.  Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency , 1993 .

[12]  Y. Smeers,et al.  A stochastic version of a Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot equilibrium model , 1997 .

[13]  Bastian Goldlücke,et al.  Variational Analysis , 2014, Computer Vision, A Reference Guide.

[14]  Huifu Xu,et al.  A note on uniform exponential convergence of sample average approximation of random functions , 2012 .

[15]  Y. Smeers,et al.  Stochastic equilibrium programming for dynamic oligopolistic markets , 1987 .

[16]  Peter Kall,et al.  Stochastic Programming , 1995 .

[17]  Amir Dembo,et al.  Large Deviations Techniques and Applications , 1998 .

[18]  J. Pang,et al.  Strategic gaming analysis for electric power systems: an MPEC approach , 2000 .

[19]  Yves Smeers,et al.  Spatial Oligopolistic Electricity Models with Cournot Generators and Regulated Transmission Prices , 1999, Oper. Res..

[20]  Ronnie Belmans,et al.  Development of a Comprehensive Electricity Generation Simulation Model Using a Mixed Integer Programming Approach , 2007 .

[21]  R. Tyrrell Rockafellar,et al.  Sensitivity analysis for nonsmooth generalized equations , 1992, Math. Program..

[22]  P. Klemperer,et al.  Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty , 1989 .

[23]  Nikolaos S. Papageorgiou On the theory of Banach space valued multifunctions. 1. Integration and conditional expectation , 1985 .

[24]  Bernd Kummer,et al.  Generalized equations: Solvability and regularity , 1984 .

[25]  Stephen M. Robinson,et al.  Analysis of Sample-Path Optimization , 1996, Math. Oper. Res..

[26]  Daniel Kuhn,et al.  Multistage stochastic portfolio optimisation in deregulated electricity markets using linear decision rules , 2012, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[27]  Masao Fukushima,et al.  Quasi-variational inequalities, generalized Nash equilibria, and multi-leader-follower games , 2009, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[28]  R. Rockafellar,et al.  The radius of metric regularity , 2002 .

[29]  J. Aubin Optima and Equilibria , 1993 .

[30]  Jane J. Ye,et al.  Sensitivity Analysis of the Value Function for Optimization Problems with Variational Inequality Constraints , 2001, SIAM J. Control. Optim..

[31]  Jian Yao,et al.  Modeling and Computing Two-Settlement Oligopolistic Equilibrium in a Congested Electricity Network , 2006, Oper. Res..

[32]  Huifu Xu,et al.  Smooth sample average approximation of stationary points in nonsmooth stochastic optimization and applications , 2009, Math. Program..

[33]  Martin Grötschel,et al.  Mathematical Programming The State of the Art, XIth International Symposium on Mathematical Programming, Bonn, Germany, August 23-27, 1982 , 1983, ISMP.

[34]  Yong Wang,et al.  Asymptotic Analysis of Sample Average Approximation for Stochastic Optimization Problems with Joint Chance Constraints via Conditional Value at Risk and Difference of Convex Functions , 2014, J. Optim. Theory Appl..

[35]  Muhammad Aslam Noor,et al.  Quasi variational inequalities , 1988 .

[36]  Francisco Facchinei,et al.  Generalized Nash equilibrium problems and Newton methods , 2008, Math. Program..

[37]  Alexander Shapiro,et al.  Quantitative stability in stochastic programming , 1994, Math. Program..

[38]  J. Pang,et al.  Oligopolistic Competition in Power Networks: A Conjectured Supply Function Approach , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[39]  Daniel Ralph,et al.  Convergence of Stationary Points of Sample Average Two-Stage Stochastic Programs: A Generalized Equation Approach , 2011, Math. Oper. Res..

[40]  B. M. Glover,et al.  Continuous approximations to generalized jacobians , 1999 .

[41]  Hanif D. Sherali,et al.  Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot Equilibria: Characterizations and Computations , 1983, Oper. Res..

[42]  Tito Homem-de-Mello,et al.  On Rates of Convergence for Stochastic Optimization Problems Under Non--Independent and Identically Distributed Sampling , 2008, SIAM J. Optim..

[43]  A. Shapiro,et al.  Uniform laws of large numbers for set-valued mappings and subdifferentials of random functions , 2007 .

[44]  J. Harsanyi Games with Incomplete Information Played by 'Bayesian' Players, Part III. The Basic Probability Distribution of the Game , 1968 .

[45]  Uday V. Shanbhag,et al.  Addressing supply-side risk in uncertain power markets: stochastic Nash models, scalable algorithms and error analysis , 2013, Optim. Methods Softw..

[46]  Huifu Xu,et al.  Sample Average Approximation Methods for a Class of Stochastic Variational inequality Problems , 2010, Asia Pac. J. Oper. Res..

[47]  Fumio Hiai,et al.  Convergence of conditional expectations and strong laws of large numbers for multivalued random variables , 1985 .

[48]  A. Ruszczynski Stochastic Programming Models , 2003 .

[49]  J. Harsanyi Games with Incomplete Information Played by “Bayesian” Players Part II. Bayesian Equilibrium Points , 1968 .

[50]  B. Mordukhovich Variational analysis and generalized differentiation , 2006 .

[51]  S. Kataoka A Stochastic Programming Model , 1963 .

[52]  Stephen M. Robinson,et al.  Sample-path optimization of convex stochastic performance functions , 1996, Math. Program..

[53]  R. Wets,et al.  Stochastic programming , 1989 .

[54]  Stephen M. Robinson,et al.  Generalized Equations , 1982, ISMP.

[55]  Jason H. Goodfriend,et al.  Discrete Event Systems: Sensitivity Analysis and Stochastic Optimization by the Score Function Method , 1995 .

[56]  J. Goodman Note on Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium Points for Concave N-Person Games , 1965 .

[57]  Uday V. Shanbhag,et al.  Strategic behavior in power markets under uncertainty , 2011 .

[58]  Boris Polyak,et al.  B.S. Mordukhovich. Variational Analysis and Generalized Differentiation. I. Basic Theory, II. Applications , 2009 .

[59]  D. Ralph,et al.  Implicit Smoothing and Its Application to Optimization with Piecewise Smooth Equality Constraints1 , 2005 .

[60]  A. Daughety Cournot Competition , 2006 .

[61]  Zvi Artstein,et al.  On the Calculus of Closed Set-Valued Functions , 1974 .

[62]  Messaoud Bounkhel,et al.  Quasi-Variational Inequalities , 2012 .

[63]  F. Clarke Optimization And Nonsmooth Analysis , 1983 .

[64]  Michael Patriksson,et al.  Stochastic mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints , 1999, Oper. Res. Lett..

[65]  Jirí V. Outrata,et al.  A note on a class of equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints , 2004, Kybernetika.

[66]  Zdzisław Denkowski,et al.  Set-Valued Analysis , 2021 .

[67]  Bayesian Rationality,et al.  CORRELATED EQUILIBRIUM AS AN EXPRESSION OF , 1987 .

[68]  Jian Yao,et al.  Two-settlement electricity markets with price caps and Cournot generation firms , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[69]  Vikram Krishnamurthy,et al.  Game Theoretic Cross-Layer Transmission Policies in Multipacket Reception Wireless Networks , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing.

[70]  Yong Wang,et al.  Asymptotic Analysis of Sample Average Approximation for Stochastic Optimization Problems with Joint Chance Constraints via CVaR / DC Approximations , 2012 .

[71]  Daniel Ralph,et al.  Using EPECs to Model Bilevel Games in Restructured Electricity Markets with Locational Prices , 2007, Oper. Res..

[72]  René Henrion,et al.  On M-stationary points for a stochastic equilibrium problem under equilibrium constraints in electricity spot market modeling , 2007 .

[73]  Uday V. Shanbhag,et al.  On the Characterization of Solution Sets of Smooth and Nonsmooth Convex Stochastic Nash Games , 2011, SIAM J. Optim..

[74]  David P. Watling,et al.  User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty , 2006, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[75]  A. Shapiro,et al.  On rate of convergence of Monte Carlo approximations of stochastic programs , 1998 .

[76]  Andrzej Ruszczynski,et al.  A Linearization Method for Nonsmooth Stochastic Programming Problems , 1987, Math. Oper. Res..

[77]  S. M. Robinson Generalized equations and their solutions, Part I: Basic theory , 1979 .

[78]  Chun-Hung Chen,et al.  Convergence Properties of Two-Stage Stochastic Programming , 2000 .

[79]  M. Eisen,et al.  Probability and its applications , 1975 .

[80]  Alexander Shapiro,et al.  The empirical behavior of sampling methods for stochastic programming , 2006, Ann. Oper. Res..

[81]  R. Aumann INTEGRALS OF SET-VALUED FUNCTIONS , 1965 .

[82]  J. Aubin Optima and Equilibria: An Introduction to Nonlinear Analysis , 1993 .

[83]  F. Facchinei,et al.  Finite-Dimensional Variational Inequalities and Complementarity Problems , 2003 .

[84]  Werner Römisch,et al.  Lipschitz Stability for Stochastic Programs with Complete Recourse , 1996, SIAM J. Optim..

[85]  Z. Artstein,et al.  A Strong Law of Large Numbers for Random Compact Sets , 1975 .

[86]  John C. Harsanyi,et al.  Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III: Part I. The Basic Model& , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[87]  Alexander Shapiro,et al.  On the Rate of Convergence of Optimal Solutions of Monte Carlo Approximations of Stochastic Programs , 2000, SIAM J. Optim..

[88]  A. Shapiro Monte Carlo Sampling Methods , 2003 .

[89]  Yevgeniy Vorobeychik,et al.  Probabilistic analysis of simulation-based games , 2010, TOMC.

[90]  Fanwen Meng,et al.  Convergence Analysis of Sample Average Approximation Methods for a Class of Stochastic Mathematical Programs with Equality Constraints , 2007, Math. Oper. Res..

[91]  Huifu Xu Uniform exponential convergence of sample average random functions under general sampling with applications in stochastic programming , 2010 .

[92]  Huifu Xu,et al.  A Stochastic Multiple-Leader Stackelberg Model: Analysis, Computation, and Application , 2009, Oper. Res..

[93]  A. Shapiro Asymptotic Properties of Statistical Estimators in Stochastic Programming , 1989 .

[94]  C. Castaing,et al.  Convex analysis and measurable multifunctions , 1977 .

[95]  Yue Wu,et al.  A two stage stochastic equilibrium model for electricity markets with two way contracts , 2010, 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems.

[96]  W. Hogan Point-to-Set Maps in Mathematical Programming , 1973 .

[97]  I. Molchanov Theory of Random Sets , 2005 .

[98]  A. Shapiro,et al.  Stochastic mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, modelling and sample average approximation , 2008 .

[99]  R. Wets,et al.  Epi‐consistency of convex stochastic programs , 1991 .

[100]  Joshua S. Gans,et al.  Contracts and Electricity Pool Prices , 1998 .