A Game Framework for Scenario Generation for the Co2 Issue

Increasing atmospheric C02 from widespread burning of fossil fuels may lead to changes in global climate, with impacts on society and environment. Gaming may be a useful means for structuring and learning about this issue. A group at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has explored several possible C02 games. A framework built around impacts of climatic change, scientific uncertainty, external factors, and policy options of prevention, adaptation, and compensation is described in this article. The framework is designed to raise questions of what could happen to whom, when, and to what effect. An appendix lists background information for the framework. The overwhelming proportion of energy that people use now comes from the burning of fuels containing carbon: coal, oil, gas, and wood. When these fuels are burned, carbon dioxide (C02) is released to the atmosphere.’ C02 is a &dquo;greenhouse&dquo; gas: it lets energy into the atmosphere more freely than it lets it out. Thus, when C02 in the atmosphere increases significantly, the atmosphere near the surface of the earth is likely to become warmer. There is growing concern that if over the next 50 to 100 years people continue to increase their use of carbon fuels, especially the abundant resources of coal, the global climate may become much warmer. Quite different patterns of climate could occur in many regions. Such changes could mean substantial shifts in