The future of mobile technology: findings from a European Delphi study

Mobile business relies on complex, competing, if not incompatible, and sometimes unreliable technology. These aspects have therefore often dominated its research assessment. This paper, however, reports from a primarily business application oriented study of the field. A Delphi study, adapted for qualitative data and scenario building, was carried out across German-speaking Europe during 2002 and 2003. 52 'experts' participated in the study, giving their considered opinion on what, over the next 5 to 7 years, the dominant mobile technologies, user structures and applications would be. The key response to the technology question was that WIFI would be dominant, with cellular 3G still at least 4 years away. Furthermore, 2.5G will remain in full use as it is adequate for most B2E/B applications for the mobile workforce, which will account for 75% of users. The most likely users of 3G broadband are teenagers - who cannot pay for them. Very few consumer applications other than small payments and ad-hoc ticketing/reservations services were given a chance of success. These findings are in marked contrast to the 'official line' taken by the 3G providers in Europe.