Seasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclones Using a 25-km-Resolution General Circulation Model

AbstractRetrospective seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the three major ocean basins of the Northern Hemisphere are performed from 1990 to 2010 using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at 25-km resolution. Atmospheric states are initialized for each forecast, with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) “persisted” from that at the starting time during the 5-month forecast period (July–November). Using a five-member ensemble, it is shown that the storm counts of both tropical storm (TS) and hurricane categories are highly predictable in the North Atlantic basin during the 21-yr period. The correlations between the 21-yr observed and model predicted storm counts are 0.88 and 0.89 for hurricanes and TSs, respectively. The prediction in the eastern North Pacific is skillful, but it is not as outstanding as that in the North Atlantic. The persistent SSTA assumption appears to be less robust for the western North Pacific, contributing to less...

[1]  Chun‐Chieh Wu,et al.  Impact of SSTA in the East Indian Ocean on the Frequency of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones: A Regional Atmospheric Model Study , 2011 .

[2]  Shian-Jiann Lin,et al.  Experimental Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using the GFDL 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model , 2011 .

[3]  J. Collins,et al.  The 2009 Hurricane Season in the Eastern North Pacific Basin: An Analysis of Environmental Conditions , 2011 .

[4]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? , 2011 .

[5]  Hui Wang,et al.  Statistical–Dynamical Predictions of Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity , 2011 .

[6]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density , 2011 .

[7]  Yuqing Wang,et al.  Contributions of ENSO and East Indian Ocean SSTA to the Interannual Variability of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Frequency , 2011 .

[8]  Ming Zhao,et al.  Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies , 2010 .

[9]  Bo-Wen Shen,et al.  African easterly waves in 30‐day high‐resolution global simulations: A case study during the 2006 NAMMA period , 2010 .

[10]  Gabriele Villarini,et al.  Modeling the Dependence of Tropical Storm Counts in the North Atlantic Basin on Climate Indices , 2010 .

[11]  Lennart Bengtsson,et al.  Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts , 2010 .

[12]  Kerry A. Emanuel,et al.  A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size , 2010 .

[13]  D. Levinson,et al.  A Technique for Combining Global Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data , 2010 .

[14]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes , 2010, Science.

[15]  L. Stefanova,et al.  Seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone hindcasting/forecasting using two sea surface temperature datasets , 2010 .

[16]  Shian-Jiann Lin,et al.  Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. , 2009 .

[17]  Chun‐Chieh Wu,et al.  Interpretation of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Sensitivity from the Singular Vector Perspective , 2009 .

[18]  Philip J. Klotzbach,et al.  Twenty-five years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts (1984―2008) , 2009 .

[19]  R. Meneghini,et al.  Validation of TRMM Precipitation Radar through Comparison of Its Multiyear Measurements with Ground-Based Radar , 2009 .

[20]  Renate Hagedorn,et al.  Strategies: Revolution in Climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction , 2009 .

[21]  S. Wang,et al.  North Atlantic Hurricanes Contributed by African Easterly Waves North and South of the African Easterly Jet , 2008 .

[22]  Shian-Jiann Lin,et al.  Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids , 2007, J. Comput. Phys..

[23]  Antje Weisheimer,et al.  Dynamically‐based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP , 2007 .

[24]  Isaac Ginis,et al.  A Physics-Based Parameterization of Air–Sea Momentum Flux at High Wind Speeds and Its Impact on Hurricane Intensity Predictions , 2007 .

[25]  Chun-Chieh Wu,et al.  Targeted Observations of Tropical Cyclone Movement Based on the Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector , 2007 .

[26]  M. Fiorino,et al.  Objectively Determined Resolution-Dependent Threshold Criteria for the Detection of Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models and Reanalyses , 2007 .

[27]  J. Elsner,et al.  Prediction Models for Annual U.S. Hurricane Counts , 2006 .

[28]  Christian D. Kummerow,et al.  Rainfall Climate Regimes: The Relationship of Regional TRMM Rainfall Biases to the Environment , 2006 .

[29]  F. Vitart.  Seasonal forecasting of tropical storm frequency using a multi‐model ensemble , 2006 .

[30]  K. Emanuel.  Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years , 2005, Nature.

[31]  S. Klein,et al.  The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations , 2004 .

[32]  B. Anderson.  Investigation of a Large-Scale Mode of Ocean-Atmosphere Variability and Its Relation to Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2004 .

[33]  Shian‐Jiann Lin.  A “Vertically Lagrangian” Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for Global Models , 2004 .

[34]  W. Gallus,et al.  Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific , 2004 .

[35]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[36]  G. North,et al.  Comparison of TRMM rainfall retrievals with rain gauge data from the TAO/TRITON buoy array , 2003 .

[37]  O. Sen,et al.  A Highly Resolved Regional Climate Model (IPRC-RegCM) and Its Simulation of the 1998 Severe Precipitation Event over China. Part I: Model Description and Verification of Simulation* , 2003 .

[38]  J. Chan,et al.  Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific , 2001 .

[39]  J. Janowiak,et al.  The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset , 1997 .

[40]  M. Lander,et al.  Specific Tropical Cyclone Track Types and Unusual Tropical Cyclone Motions Associated with a Reverse-Oriented Monsoon Trough in the Western North Pacific , 1996 .

[41]  N. Davidson.  Vorticity Budget for AMEX. Part II: Simulations of Monsoon Onset, Midtropospheric Lows, and Tropical Cyclone Behavior , 1995 .

[42]  W. Gates.  AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. , 1992 .

[43]  W. M. Gray.  Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Frequency. Part II: Forecasting its Variability , 1984 .

[44]  H. D. Orville,et al.  Bulk Parameterization of the Snow Field in a Cloud Model , 1983 .

[45]  T. Carlson.  SYNOPTIC HISTORIES OF THREE AFRICAN DISTURBANCES THAT DEVELOPED INTO ATLANTIC HURRICANES , 1969 .