The effects of ageing and urbanization on China's future population and labor force

China is expected to experience a rapid ageing process because of its low fertility rate, the ageing of the large baby boom generation and the improvement of mortality rates. Fertility and mortality rates are smaller for the urban than for the rural population, as a consequence of which the rapid urbanization will play an important role in changes in the age structure of the Chinese population. This paper estimates China’s future population and labor force by developing a novel population forecast model that combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas with information about rural-urban migration and transformation of rural areas into urban areas. We find that (i) the share of people aged 65+ in China’s total population will double between 2010 and 2030, and the ageing problem in rural areas will be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) China’s total labor force will decrease by 6% between 2010 and 2030, irrespective of potential relaxation of birth control policies; and (iii) China’s urbanization rate will increase from 50% in 2010 to 71% in 2030. These projections deviate considerably from projections by the United Nations (2013).

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