EpiSimS simulation of a multi-component strategy for pandemic influenza

Limited stockpiles of antiviral medications and lack of availability of early strain-specific vaccine will require a multi-component strategy of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures to delay or contain a future catastrophic avian influenza pandemic. A strategy composed of the antiviral stockpile distribution, school closures, and social distancing, followed by strain-specific vaccine when available is proposed. The EpiSimS agent-based simulation model with a structured population is used to assess the effectiveness of this strategy and to explore the sensitivity of its elements, in particular the level of school closures and the start time for non-pharmaceutical interventions, with varying amounts of expected fear-based isolation behavior. Results show that the level of school closure has the largest effect on reducing morbidity and mortality, comparable to US seasonal flu when starting early with a high level of school closures. Small variations of fear-based isolation showed little impact on morbidity and mortality, though a large second-order effect is seen on worker absenteeism.

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