Maritime activity in the high north – the range of unwanted incidents and risk patterns

Growing commercial activities in the High North increase the possibility of unwanted incidents. The vulnerability related to human safety, environment, and installations or vessels, and a challenging context, call for strengthening of the preparedness system, and cross-boundary and cross-institutional collaboration. The commercial activity in the High North includes intraand inter-regional transportation, the search for and exploitation of hydrocarbons and other mineral resources, the fisheries, and cruise tourism. In addition, in the High North we find government activity such as research and naval operations. Activities in the Arctic are challenged by limited infrastructure, low temperatures with ice and icing, polar lows, and a fragile nature. In this paper we look into different stressors and risk factors in the High North related to life and environment. A discussion of risk is important for decisions about operational demands and the development of an adequate preparedness system. High North is here defined as the circumpolar Arctic, delineated by the Arctic Circle. In the paper and presentation we will focus on the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic. The main operational risk factors faced include geographical remoteness, climate-change related aspects and weather, electronic communications challenges, sea ice, lack of precise maps or hydrographic and meteorological data. Activity and probability of accidents differs in different parts of the Arctic. An overview of maritime activity and risk assessment are given in the paper. Implications for the preparedness systems are discussed. INTRODUCTION Increasing human activity in the Arctic creates great concern about accidents and consequences for life and nature. There is a need for increased understanding of the risk factors, risk mitigating tools, and adequate preparedness system capacities. In this paper we analyze the expected activity level and risk patterns in the Norwegian and and West-Russian Arctic, i.e. the Barents Sea to Novaya Zemlya and the official boundary of the Northern Sea Route. The High North is the place of stable and growing political and economic interest from several countries, including Russia and Norway. Both countries have special Arctic strategies proclaimed as important issues (Norwegian Government, 2006, Norwegian Government, 2014, Russian Federation, 2009, Russian Federation, 2013). Nevertheless, there is no strict definition of “High North”. In the common sense, the High North is similar to the Arctic and includes territories to the north of Polar Circle (66o34’) (Skagestad, 2010). In our study we take into consideration the conical shape sea area to the north of 66o34’ up to the North Pole and between meridians 00o00’ and 58o00’ and Novaya Zemlya Coast on the east (see the map at Figure 1). We divide this area into 3 regions. These are distinguished in the natural and social senses, have different levels and types of maritime activity and should be considered as providing quite different challenges for the emergency preparedness system (Table 1). Figure 1. Three regions under consideration. Base map is “Norwegian rescue service's area of responsibility” (red lines) (BarentsWatch, 2013) Table 1. Main features of the regions under consideration Region 1) Svalbard area 2) Mainland Norway (up to Bear Island on the north) 3) Russian part of the Barents Sea Boundary W-E 00o00’ and 35 o00’East 00o00’ and 35 o00’East 35 o00’ and 58 o00’ Boundary N-S 74 o00’90 o00’ 66 o34’ and 74 o00’ Coastal line 90 o00’ Natural features Long polar day and night. Harsh weather condition: low temperature, wind. Sea ice in the North Short period with polar night/day. Strong influence of NorthAtlantic current Polar low Polar night/day. Polar low. Fading North-Atlantic current and influence of Arctic. Sea ice influx from Kara Sea and the Arctic Ocean Economic features Population ca. 2800 Very small economic activity Population: ca 500 000 Rather equal activities along the region. Oil and gas exploration Population: ca. 700 000 All activities concentrate in the south part. Oil/gas exploration Political features Norwegian jurisdiction Unmilitary zone Russian fishing and coal mining activities. Norwegian jurisdiction Russian jurisdiction Characteristics navigational difficulties Sea ice on the North Reduced satellite coverage. Lack of maps. Storms, Icing, “Heavy traffic” on most common ship routes and ports Storms, Icing Sea ice in South-East and North Maritime activity Fishery, Tourism, Cargo, Science, Tankers Cargo, Tankers, Fishery, Tourism, Science Cargo, Tankers, Fishery, Science ,Tourism,